TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093693
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1618111511––––
Adam Staniczek
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Staniczek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
1618111511––––
H2H Michal Machelski 26–51 Adam Staniczek Michal Machelski has won 26 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Staniczek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-51 in 77
Staniczek
Correct
gap of 25 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1320 vs Staniczek 1256
Machelski
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Staniczek 60%
Staniczek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Staniczek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -3 · Staniczek +2
Machelski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Staniczek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 1.95 / Staniczek 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Staniczek)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13093693
Machelski1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 120
Staniczek1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 92 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it89% 69 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwayStaniczek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaniczek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski100%4 of 4
AwayStaniczek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski4Staniczek6n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S2Machelski4Staniczek6n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S3Machelski5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S4Machelski2Staniczek3n = 5Staniczek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiStaniczekM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.434.7−2.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 1137 vs 368 / 100536.9%36.6%420 / 1137 vs 368 / 1005Avg sets wonper match1.71.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.233.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaniczekMachelski 1.95/Staniczek 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Staniczek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 23:10M. Machelski—5640A. Staniczek—1111113
WAug 31 · 15:50M. Machelski—1211113A. Staniczek—10570
LAug 10 · 23:10M. Machelski—1010110A. Staniczek—1212133
LAug 10 · 01:00M. Machelski—73111122A. Staniczek—111196113
LAug 9 · 18:55M. Machelski—6880A. Staniczek—1111113
WJul 29 · 23:45M. Machelski—111187113A. Staniczek—79111142
LJul 29 · 15:50M. Machelski—591171A. Staniczek—11118113
WJul 27 · 23:10M. Machelski—1111113A. Staniczek—5560
WJul 23 · 23:55M. Machelski—11116113A. Staniczek—991131
LJul 23 · 17:55M. Machelski—891271A. Staniczek—111110113
M. Machelski10
WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182
A. Staniczek10
LSep 8 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.191112113A. Staniczek3.9031050WSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.2269131172A. Staniczek3.601111118113LSep 7 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.01611111162A. Krezel1.66111375113WSep 7 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.40511681A. Staniczek1.5011911113LSep 7 · 17:10J. Slawomir1.5481111113A. Staniczek2.25117781LSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:25A. Staniczek2.631271161G. Mucha1.4414116113LSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962
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