TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093701
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111311511811––
Adam Staniczek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
5111311511811––
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 6–3 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Karpiuk beat Staniczek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:01What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Karpiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Karpiuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1286 vs Staniczek 1241
Karpiuk
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 40% vs Staniczek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 50% vs Staniczek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +1 · Staniczek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.60 / Staniczek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Karpiuk)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13093701
Karpiuk1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 56 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 38 of 55
Staniczek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 113 of 437
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 277
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 206
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKarpiuk6wins
AwayStaniczek3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk80%4 of 5
AwayStaniczek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk5Staniczek4n = 9Karpiuk took 5 of 9
S2Karpiuk4Staniczek5n = 9Staniczek took 5 of 9
S3Karpiuk7Staniczek2n = 9Karpiuk took 7 of 9
S4Karpiuk7Staniczek1n = 8Karpiuk took 7 of 8
S5Karpiuk1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKarpiukStaniczekK − SBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match41.740.1+1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 258 vs 367 / 100445%36.6%116 / 258 vs 367 / 1004Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.033.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukKarpiuk 1.60/Staniczek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.8%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk—13814113A. Staniczek—11111281
WAug 13 · 23:55M. Karpiuk—11811123A. Staniczek—4119101
WAug 13 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—1111113A. Staniczek—6730
LAug 10 · 02:35M. Karpiuk—115111092A. Staniczek—811912113
WAug 9 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—81111113A. Staniczek—118991
LJul 16 · 24:35M. Karpiuk—57111192A. Staniczek—111189113
WJul 15 · 18:30M. Karpiuk—471111113A. Staniczek—11113982
WJul 12 · 22:10M. Karpiuk—11116113A. Staniczek—981181
LJul 12 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—101341132A. Staniczek—1211118113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10671151J. Slawomir1.6011117113LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751
A. Staniczek10
WSep 7 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.2269131172A. Staniczek3.601111118113LSep 7 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.01611111162A. Krezel1.66111375113WSep 7 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.40511681A. Staniczek1.5011911113LSep 7 · 17:10J. Slawomir1.5481111113A. Staniczek2.25117781LSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:25A. Staniczek2.631271161G. Mucha1.4414116113LSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962LSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880WSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113
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