TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082611
Played Sep 5Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118118––––
Adam Staniczek
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:59 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 73.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 21–5 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 5 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Gesiarz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-5 in 26
Gesiarz
Correct
gap of 16 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1406 vs Staniczek 1197
Gesiarz
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 60% vs Staniczek 40%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 60% vs Staniczek 30%
Gesiarz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -2 · Staniczek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Gesiarz) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.30 / Staniczek 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Gesiarz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13082611
Gesiarz1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Staniczek3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 111 of 435
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 278
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 207
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGesiarz8wins
AwayStaniczek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGesiarz leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz88.9%8 of 9
AwayStaniczekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz9Staniczek1n = 10Gesiarz took 9 of 10
S2Gesiarz9Staniczek1n = 10Gesiarz took 9 of 10
S3Gesiarz7Staniczek3n = 10Gesiarz took 7 of 10
S4Gesiarz3Staniczek1n = 4Gesiarz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGesiarzStaniczekG − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.528.9+9.6per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 288 vs 367 / 100646.9%36.5%135 / 288 vs 367 / 1006Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.033.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzGesiarz 1.30/Staniczek 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz—1111113A. Staniczek—7880
WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz—1111113A. Staniczek—7770
WAug 31 · 19:10P. Gesiarz—1111133A. Staniczek—84110
WAug 24 · 17:10P. Gesiarz—1611113A. Staniczek—14450
WAug 17 · 17:10P. Gesiarz—11118113A. Staniczek—791141
WAug 13 · 22:20P. Gesiarz—1111113A. Staniczek—6650
WAug 10 · 17:10P. Gesiarz—1111113A. Staniczek—4860
WAug 3 · 18:25P. Gesiarz—11145113A. Staniczek—9121161
LJul 27 · 17:10P. Gesiarz—911111092A. Staniczek—118512113
LJul 20 · 17:10P. Gesiarz—1151011112A. Staniczek—511127133
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142LAug 31 · 20:50P. Gesiarz2.259911121J. Cyndera1.5711118143
A. Staniczek10
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:25A. Staniczek2.631271161G. Mucha1.4414116113LSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113LSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 19:20A. Staniczek2.63311481G. Mucha1.4411411113WSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133LSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770LSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172WSep 4 · 05:05A. Barton2.90791181A. Staniczek1.3511114113
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A. Staniczek
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