TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13081949
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911911811––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:52 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-8
Point 75 set 4, 8-8 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 62.5%
75 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 4–2 Piotr Gesiarz Piotr Gesiarz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:52What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kocik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Kocik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1510 vs Gesiarz 1384
Kocik
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 100% vs Gesiarz 80%
Kocik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 80% vs Gesiarz 60%
Kocik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +5 · Gesiarz +2
Kocik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.28 / Gesiarz 3.50
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Kocik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13081949
Kocik1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 38 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Gesiarz3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 47 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKocik4wins
AwayGesiarz2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKocik leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocik66.7%2 of 3
AwayGesiarz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocik3Gesiarz3n = 6split evenly
S2Kocik3Gesiarz3n = 6split evenly
S3Kocik6Gesiarz0n = 6Kocik took 6 of 6
S4Kocik3Gesiarz2n = 5Kocik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKocikGesiarzK − GBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.835.0+5.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 80 vs 132 / 28371.3%46.6%57 / 80 vs 132 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.28/Gesiarz 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.1%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 1 · 21:20T. Kocik—61111113P. Gesiarz—115561
LAug 1 · 15:25T. Kocik—1110111092P. Gesiarz—712912113
WJul 25 · 22:55T. Kocik—1111113P. Gesiarz—9980
WJul 25 · 16:55T. Kocik—61111113P. Gesiarz—116751
LJul 12 · 24:35T. Kocik—891191P. Gesiarz—11114113
WJul 11 · 18:28T. Kocik—111211123P. Gesiarz—8148101
T. Kocik10
WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191WSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113WSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WSep 5 · 15:00T. Kocik1.4061111133G. Mucha2.751164111WAug 30 · 02:00C. Pawlik2.005770T. Kocik1.711111113
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142LAug 31 · 20:50P. Gesiarz2.259911121J. Cyndera1.5711118143
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