TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082418
Played Sep 5Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611911––––
Tomasz Kocik
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:00 and never touched — 77.1% is still 77.1%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
77.1%
77.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Tomasz Kocik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 77.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 3–5 Tomasz Kocik Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Kocik
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1402 vs Kocik 1471
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 80% vs Kocik 60%
Gesiarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 70% vs Kocik 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -1 · Kocik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocik form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 3.50 / Kocik 1.28
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Kocik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13082418
Gesiarz3.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 47 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Kocik1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 38 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGesiarz3wins
AwayKocik5wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKocik leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz33.3%1 of 3
AwayKocik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz3Kocik5n = 8Kocik took 5 of 8
S2Gesiarz4Kocik4n = 8split evenly
S3Gesiarz1Kocik7n = 8Kocik took 7 of 8
S4Gesiarz3Kocik3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricGesiarzKocikG − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match34.039.4−5.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzKocikBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 287 vs 59 / 8446.7%70.2%134 / 287 vs 59 / 84Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikGesiarz 3.50/Kocik 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.3%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz—6690T. Kocik—1111113
WSep 5 · 17:45P. Gesiarz—81111113T. Kocik—119981
LAug 1 · 21:20P. Gesiarz—115561T. Kocik—61111113
WAug 1 · 15:25P. Gesiarz—712912113T. Kocik—1110111092
LJul 25 · 22:55P. Gesiarz—9980T. Kocik—1111113
LJul 25 · 16:55P. Gesiarz—116751T. Kocik—61111113
WJul 12 · 24:35P. Gesiarz—11114113T. Kocik—891191
LJul 11 · 18:28P. Gesiarz—8148101T. Kocik—111211123
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142LAug 31 · 20:50P. Gesiarz2.259911121J. Cyndera1.5711118143
T. Kocik10
WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191WSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WSep 5 · 15:00T. Kocik1.4061111133G. Mucha2.751164111WAug 30 · 02:00C. Pawlik2.005770T. Kocik1.711111113
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