TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13081939
Played Sep 5Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113911911––––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 64 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 55.5%
64 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 3–3 Grzegorz Mucha Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:49What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1432 vs Mucha 1375
Gesiarz
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 80% vs Mucha 60%
Gesiarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 70% vs Mucha 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +4 · Mucha +2
Gesiarz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.83 / Mucha 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mucha)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13081939
Gesiarz1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Mucha1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGesiarz3wins
AwayMucha3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz75%3 of 4
AwayMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz4Mucha2n = 6Gesiarz took 4 of 6
S2Gesiarz2Mucha4n = 6Mucha took 4 of 6
S3Gesiarz2Mucha4n = 6Mucha took 4 of 6
S4Gesiarz3Mucha2n = 5Gesiarz took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGesiarzMuchaG − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match43.042.5+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 285 vs 117 / 23647%49.6%134 / 285 vs 117 / 236Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaGesiarz 1.83/Mucha 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 29 · 21:20P. Gesiarz—6990G. Mucha—1111113
WAug 29 · 18:10P. Gesiarz—111214113G. Mucha—6101691
LAug 15 · 22:55P. Gesiarz—13127101G. Mucha—111411123
WAug 15 · 16:55P. Gesiarz—1111711113G. Mucha—81311972
LAug 9 · 02:10P. Gesiarz—1111115102G. Mucha—135811123
WAug 8 · 20:05P. Gesiarz—15811113G. Mucha—1311391
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142LAug 31 · 20:50P. Gesiarz2.259911121J. Cyndera1.5711118143
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562WSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133
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