TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082794
Played Sep 6Finished
Dariusz Maszczynski
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1176111176111412
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:30 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDariusz Maszczynski above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 96 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 67.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 16–30 Piotr Gesiarz Dariusz Maszczynski has won 16 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Gesiarz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-30 in 46
Gesiarz
Wrong
gap of 14 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1234 vs Gesiarz 1421
Gesiarz
Wrong
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 40% vs Gesiarz 60%
Gesiarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 40% vs Gesiarz 70%
Gesiarz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski -1 · Gesiarz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Gesiarz) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 3.00 / Gesiarz 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Gesiarz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13082794
Maszczynski3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 63 of 262
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 118
Gesiarz1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 64 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaszczynski3wins
AwayGesiarz7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGesiarz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaszczynski100%3 of 3
AwayGesiarz100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski3Gesiarz7n = 10Gesiarz took 7 of 10
S2Maszczynski7Gesiarz3n = 10Maszczynski took 7 of 10
S3Maszczynski5Gesiarz5n = 10split evenly
S4Maszczynski0Gesiarz7n = 7Gesiarz took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiGesiarzM − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.036.8−1.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 405 vs 136 / 28922%47.1%89 / 405 vs 136 / 289Avg sets wonper match1.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzMaszczynski 3.00/Gesiarz 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.8%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maszczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski—7560P. Gesiarz—1111113
LAug 31 · 16:10D. Maszczynski—981141P. Gesiarz—11119113
WAug 24 · 16:00D. Maszczynski—1111133P. Gesiarz—95110
LAug 17 · 16:00D. Maszczynski—7101181P. Gesiarz—11123113
LAug 16 · 02:10D. Maszczynski—81111842P. Gesiarz—119611113
WAug 15 · 20:05D. Maszczynski—1111113P. Gesiarz—1550
LAug 10 · 16:00D. Maszczynski—611871P. Gesiarz—11911113
WAug 8 · 22:55D. Maszczynski—111179123P. Gesiarz—741111102
LAug 8 · 16:55D. Maszczynski—81112101P. Gesiarz—11914123
LAug 3 · 20:00D. Maszczynski—1119101P. Gesiarz—11711123
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113LSep 5 · 23:20D. Maszczynski3.7511881172G. Mucha1.25311119113WSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113LSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113WSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590LSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113LSep 5 · 17:20D. Maszczynski3.405911101G. Mucha1.3011112123LSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172WAug 31 · 20:30M. Machelski1.7761111932D. Maszczynski1.95116511113
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142LAug 31 · 20:50P. Gesiarz2.259911121J. Cyndera1.5711118143
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