TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13081955
Played Sep 5Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111210117511114
Oskar Jedrzejowski
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:53 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeOskar Jedrzejowski to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Oskar Jedrzejowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-3
Point 84 set 5, 6-3 — our read held Oskar Jedrzejowski at 69.1%
84 points drawn · the score is 6 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 1–1 Oskar Jedrzejowski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:53What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1370 vs Jedrzejowski 1478
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 60% vs Jedrzejowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 40% vs Jedrzejowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -1 · Jedrzejowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Jedrzejowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jedrzejowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 2.75 / Jedrzejowski 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Jedrzejowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13081955
Gesiarz2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 47 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Jedrzejowski1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 70 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGesiarz1wins
AwayJedrzejowski1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGesiarzJedrzejowskiG − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match40.035.5+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzJedrzejowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 281 vs 114 / 19946.3%57.3%130 / 281 vs 114 / 199Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejowskiGesiarz 2.75/Jedrzejowski 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Jedrzejowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 15 · 21:45P. Gesiarz—81111113O. Jedrzejowski—119441
LAug 15 · 17:45P. Gesiarz—1481161O. Jedrzejowski—16115113
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770LAug 31 · 20:50P. Gesiarz2.259911121J. Cyndera1.5711118143
O. Jedrzejowski10
LSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113LSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113LSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113WSep 5 · 21:00O. Jedrzejowski1.6711124113G. Mucha2.103101171LSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590WSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133WSep 5 · 16:35O. Jedrzejowski1.671112133G. Mucha2.10910110WAug 29 · 02:00M. Krutak2.479430O. Jedrzejowski1.461111113
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