TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13081937
Played Sep 5Finished
Oskar Jedrzejowski
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131210411117––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOskar Jedrzejowski above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 69 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 59.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oskar Jedrzejowski 3–2 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jedrzejowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jedrzejowski 1458 vs Mucha 1391
Jedrzejowski
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jedrzejowski 40% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jedrzejowski 50% vs Mucha 80%
Mucha
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jedrzejowski -1 · Mucha +3
Mucha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Jedrzejowski) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJedrzejowski 1.67 / Mucha 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Jedrzejowski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13081937
Jedrzejowski1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 70 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Mucha2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 42 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJedrzejowski3wins
AwayMucha2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderJedrzejowski leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJedrzejowski75%3 of 4
AwayMuchan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jedrzejowski4Mucha1n = 5Jedrzejowski took 4 of 5
S2Jedrzejowski3Mucha2n = 5Jedrzejowski took 3 of 5
S3Jedrzejowski1Mucha4n = 5Mucha took 4 of 5
S4Jedrzejowski2Mucha2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJedrzejowskiMuchaJ − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match39.240.0−0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJedrzejowskiMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 204 vs 118 / 23756.9%49.8%116 / 204 vs 118 / 237Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejowskiJedrzejowski 1.67/Mucha 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Jedrzejowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jedrzejowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 5 · 16:35O. Jedrzejowski—111283G. Mucha—91070
LAug 23 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski—1011871G. Mucha—12911113
WAug 22 · 19:35O. Jedrzejowski—111313113G. Mucha—8111571
WAug 16 · 24:10O. Jedrzejowski—1161011113G. Mucha—81112992
LAug 15 · 20:30O. Jedrzejowski—118941G. Mucha—81111113
O. Jedrzejowski10
LSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113LSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113LSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113LSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590WSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133WSep 5 · 16:35O. Jedrzejowski1.671112133G. Mucha2.10910110LSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142WAug 29 · 02:00M. Krutak2.479430O. Jedrzejowski1.461111113
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 5 · 16:35O. Jedrzejowski1.671112133G. Mucha2.10910110
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