TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082417
Played Sep 6Finished
Oskar Jedrzejowski
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
112411411911––
Tomasz Kocik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOskar Jedrzejowski above · Tomasz Kocik below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 63 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 58.5%
63 points played in total.
H2H Oskar Jedrzejowski 3–2 Tomasz Kocik Tomasz Kocik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jedrzejowski 1424 vs Kocik 1510
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jedrzejowski 40% vs Kocik 80%
Kocik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jedrzejowski 40% vs Kocik 80%
Kocik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jedrzejowski -2 · Kocik +4
Kocik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJedrzejowski 2.38 / Kocik 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kocik)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13082417
Jedrzejowski2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 30 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Kocik1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 38 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJedrzejowski3wins
AwayKocik2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJedrzejowski leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJedrzejowski75%3 of 4
AwayKocikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jedrzejowski4Kocik1n = 5Jedrzejowski took 4 of 5
S2Jedrzejowski4Kocik1n = 5Jedrzejowski took 4 of 5
S3Jedrzejowski1Kocik4n = 5Kocik took 4 of 5
S4Jedrzejowski2Kocik2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJedrzejowskiKocikJ − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.238.8−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJedrzejowskiKocikBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 207 vs 61 / 8656.5%70.9%117 / 207 vs 61 / 86Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikJedrzejowski 2.38/Kocik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 5 · 18:55O. Jedrzejowski—11118113T. Kocik—981191
LAug 23 · 02:45O. Jedrzejowski—11112662T. Kocik—861111113
WAug 22 · 18:25O. Jedrzejowski—115911113T. Kocik—71111792
LAug 15 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski—811871T. Kocik—11811113
WAug 14 · 19:35O. Jedrzejowski—1111113T. Kocik—8880
O. Jedrzejowski10
LSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113LSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113WSep 5 · 21:00O. Jedrzejowski1.6711124113G. Mucha2.103101171LSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590WSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133WSep 5 · 16:35O. Jedrzejowski1.671112133G. Mucha2.10910110LSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142WAug 29 · 02:00M. Krutak2.479430O. Jedrzejowski1.461111113
T. Kocik10
WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191WSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WSep 5 · 15:00T. Kocik1.4061111133G. Mucha2.751164111WAug 30 · 02:00C. Pawlik2.005770T. Kocik1.711111113
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