TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082419
Played Sep 5Finished
Oskar Jedrzejowski
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811811––––
Piotr Gesiarz
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeOskar Jedrzejowski to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOskar Jedrzejowski above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Oskar Jedrzejowski at 69.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oskar Jedrzejowski 1–2 Piotr Gesiarz Oskar Jedrzejowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jedrzejowski 1440 vs Gesiarz 1406
Jedrzejowski
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jedrzejowski 40% vs Gesiarz 60%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jedrzejowski 50% vs Gesiarz 70%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jedrzejowski -1 · Gesiarz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Jedrzejowski) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJedrzejowski 1.44 / Gesiarz 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Jedrzejowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082419
Jedrzejowski1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 70 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Gesiarz2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 47 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJedrzejowski1wins
AwayGesiarz2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderGesiarz leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJedrzejowski33.3%1 of 3
AwayGesiarzn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jedrzejowski3Gesiarz0n = 3Jedrzejowski took 3 of 3
S2Jedrzejowski1Gesiarz2n = 3Gesiarz took 2 of 3
S3Jedrzejowski0Gesiarz3n = 3Gesiarz took 3 of 3
S4Jedrzejowski2Gesiarz1n = 3Jedrzejowski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricJedrzejowskiGesiarzJ − GBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match38.042.3−4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJedrzejowskiGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 206 vs 135 / 28856.8%46.9%117 / 206 vs 135 / 288Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejowskiJedrzejowski 1.44/Gesiarz 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Jedrzejowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 5 · 15:50O. Jedrzejowski—111071142P. Gesiarz—812115113
LAug 15 · 21:45O. Jedrzejowski—119441P. Gesiarz—81111113
WAug 15 · 17:45O. Jedrzejowski—16115113P. Gesiarz—1481161
O. Jedrzejowski10
LSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113LSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113WSep 5 · 21:00O. Jedrzejowski1.6711124113G. Mucha2.103101171LSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590WSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133WSep 5 · 16:35O. Jedrzejowski1.671112133G. Mucha2.10910110LSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142WAug 29 · 02:00M. Krutak2.479430O. Jedrzejowski1.461111113
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142LAug 31 · 20:50P. Gesiarz2.259911121J. Cyndera1.5711118143
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