TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083155
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.24
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113119811119116
Adam Staniczek
Away
3.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:14 and never touched — 73.4% is still 73.4%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
73.4%
73.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 100 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 73.4%
100 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 3–1 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:14What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.24 (74%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kocik
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1507 vs Staniczek 1190
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 317 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 60% vs Staniczek 40%
Kocik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 80% vs Staniczek 30%
Kocik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +3 · Staniczek -1
Kocik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kocik) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (28%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.24 / Staniczek 3.55
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Kocik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13083155
Kocik1.24
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 38 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Staniczek3.55
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 111 of 435
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 278
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 207
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKocik3wins
AwayStaniczek1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKocik leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocik66.7%2 of 3
AwayStaniczekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocik3Staniczek1n = 4Kocik took 3 of 4
S2Kocik2Staniczek2n = 4split evenly
S3Kocik1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
S4Kocik3Staniczek1n = 4Kocik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKocikStaniczekK − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.238.0+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 86 vs 367 / 100770.9%36.4%61 / 86 vs 367 / 1007Avg sets wonper match2.41.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.233.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.24/Staniczek 3.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.9%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik—1111811113A. Staniczek—13911962
WSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik—11117113A. Staniczek—691191
LJul 17 · 01:30T. Kocik—117191A. Staniczek—21111113
WJul 16 · 19:30T. Kocik—11411113A. Staniczek—911681
T. Kocik10
WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191WSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WSep 5 · 15:00T. Kocik1.4061111133G. Mucha2.751164111WAug 30 · 02:00C. Pawlik2.005770T. Kocik1.711111113
A. Staniczek10
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:25A. Staniczek2.631271161G. Mucha1.4414116113LSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880WSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113LSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 19:20A. Staniczek2.63311481G. Mucha1.4411411113WSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133LSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770LSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172WSep 4 · 05:05A. Barton2.90791181A. Staniczek1.3511114113
Upcoming Matches
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A. Staniczek
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