TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077930
Played Sep 5Finished
Dariusz Maszczynski
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119119611811117
Adam Staniczek
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeAdam Staniczek to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDariusz Maszczynski above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Adam Staniczek at 62.6%
94 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 5–28 Adam Staniczek Dariusz Maszczynski has won 5 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Staniczek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-28 in 33
Staniczek
Wrong
gap of 23 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1136 vs Staniczek 1223
Staniczek
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 20% vs Staniczek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 30% vs Staniczek 10%
Maszczynski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski +1 · Staniczek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Staniczek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 2.75 / Staniczek 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Staniczek)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13077930
Maszczynski2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog24% won 63 of 262
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 118
Staniczek1.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 93 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it89% 70 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaszczynski1wins
AwayStaniczek9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStaniczek leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaszczynskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStaniczek88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski1Staniczek9n = 10Staniczek took 9 of 10
S2Maszczynski4Staniczek6n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S3Maszczynski3Staniczek7n = 10Staniczek took 7 of 10
S4Maszczynski3Staniczek4n = 7Staniczek took 4 of 7
S5Maszczynski1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiStaniczekM − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.241.6−8.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 397 vs 367 / 100921.7%36.4%86 / 397 vs 367 / 1009Avg sets wonper match1.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match33.433.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaniczekMaszczynski 2.75/Staniczek 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.6%
Staniczek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maszczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 14:30D. Maszczynski—771161A. Staniczek—11117113
LAug 24 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—9540A. Staniczek—1111113
LAug 17 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—211861A. Staniczek—11911113
LAug 10 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—68111152A. Staniczek—111188113
LAug 3 · 15:35D. Maszczynski—7650A. Staniczek—1111113
WJul 27 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—811511133A. Staniczek—116113112
LJul 20 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—91111892A. Staniczek—119811113
LJul 13 · 17:10D. Maszczynski—61271392A. Staniczek—11101111113
LJul 6 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—7780A. Staniczek—1111113
LJul 5 · 01:45D. Maszczynski—117951A. Staniczek—71111113
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122LSep 5 · 23:20D. Maszczynski3.7511881172G. Mucha1.25311119113WSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113LSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113WSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590LSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113LSep 5 · 17:20D. Maszczynski3.405911101G. Mucha1.3011112123LSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WAug 31 · 20:30M. Machelski1.7761111932D. Maszczynski1.95116511113
A. Staniczek10
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:25A. Staniczek2.631271161G. Mucha1.4414116113LSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962LSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880WSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113LSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 19:20A. Staniczek2.63311481G. Mucha1.4411411113WSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133LSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 4 · 05:05A. Barton2.90791181A. Staniczek1.3511114113
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