TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093679
Played Sep 8Finished
Adam Staniczek
Home
2.01
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9119111412711––
Andrzej Krezel
Away
1.66
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:56 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeAndrzej Krezel to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
9119111412711––
H2H Adam Staniczek 0–3 Andrzej Krezel Adam Staniczek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Krezel beat Staniczek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Krezel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Krezel
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staniczek 1268 vs Krezel 1414
Krezel
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staniczek 60% vs Krezel 40%
Staniczek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staniczek 50% vs Krezel 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Staniczek -1 · Krezel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Krezel) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaniczek 2.01 / Krezel 1.66
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Krezel)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13093679
Staniczek2.01
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 113 of 437
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 277
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 206
Krezel1.66
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite40% won 17 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it63% 15 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStaniczek0wins
AwayKrezel3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKrezel leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaniczekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKrezel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staniczek0Krezel3n = 3Krezel took 3 of 3
S2Staniczek0Krezel3n = 3Krezel took 3 of 3
S3Staniczek2Krezel1n = 3Staniczek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricStaniczekKrezelS − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match30.339.7−9.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaniczekKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 1007 vs 68 / 21936.6%31.1%369 / 1007 vs 68 / 219Avg sets wonper match1.61.5per matchAvg pointsper match33.834.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrezelStaniczek 2.01/Krezel 1.66
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Krezel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krezel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 7 · 19:35A. Staniczek—611111162A. Krezel—111375113
LAug 21 · 01:45A. Staniczek—5211121A. Krezel—11113143
LAug 20 · 16:15A. Staniczek—5290A. Krezel—1111113
A. Staniczek10
LSep 8 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111113A. Staniczek2.302670LSep 8 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.191112113A. Staniczek3.9031050WSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113WSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.2269131172A. Staniczek3.601111118113LSep 7 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.01611111162A. Krezel1.66111375113WSep 7 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.40511681A. Staniczek1.5011911113LSep 7 · 17:10J. Slawomir1.5481111113A. Staniczek2.25117781LSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113
A. Krezel10
WSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.32119119113A. Krezel3.1081161182LSep 7 · 21:10J. Michalik1.8841212113A. Krezel1.8211101081LSep 7 · 20:20J. Slawomir1.53117115113A. Krezel2.2381181152WSep 7 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.01611111162A. Krezel1.66111375113WSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133WSep 7 · 16:50D. Maszczynski2.605780A. Krezel1.411111113WSep 7 · 15:10M. Warzecha1.27811981A. Krezel3.3011811113LSep 6 · 02:00A. Krezel2.754611131C. Pawlik1.3711117153
Upcoming Matches
A. Staniczek
Nothing scheduled
A. Krezel3 of 4 neutral
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