TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087004
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.72
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13118111412118––
Adam Staniczek
Away
1.97
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
13118111412118––
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 5–3 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (53%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Karpiuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1296 vs Staniczek 1219
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 60% vs Staniczek 40%
Karpiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 30% vs Staniczek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk +2 · Staniczek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.72 / Staniczek 1.97
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Karpiuk)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087004
Karpiuk1.72
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 56 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 38 of 55
Staniczek1.97
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 113 of 437
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 277
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 206
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKarpiuk5wins
AwayStaniczek3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk75%3 of 4
AwayStaniczek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk4Staniczek4n = 8split evenly
S2Karpiuk4Staniczek4n = 8split evenly
S3Karpiuk6Staniczek2n = 8Karpiuk took 6 of 8
S4Karpiuk6Staniczek1n = 7Karpiuk took 6 of 7
S5Karpiuk1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKarpiukStaniczekK − SBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.139.9+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 253 vs 368 / 100945.1%36.5%114 / 253 vs 368 / 1009Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.033.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukKarpiuk 1.72/Staniczek 1.97
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 13 · 23:55M. Karpiuk—11811123A. Staniczek—4119101
WAug 13 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—1111113A. Staniczek—6730
LAug 10 · 02:35M. Karpiuk—115111092A. Staniczek—811912113
WAug 9 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—81111113A. Staniczek—118991
LJul 16 · 24:35M. Karpiuk—57111192A. Staniczek—111189113
WJul 15 · 18:30M. Karpiuk—471111113A. Staniczek—11113982
WJul 12 · 22:10M. Karpiuk—11116113A. Staniczek—981181
LJul 12 · 19:40M. Karpiuk—101341132A. Staniczek—1211118113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113LAug 31 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.731111113M. Karpiuk2.005850LAug 31 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511911113M. Karpiuk3.75511961
A. Staniczek10
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:25A. Staniczek2.631271161G. Mucha1.4414116113LSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962LSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880WSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113LSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 19:20A. Staniczek2.63311481G. Mucha1.4411411113WSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133LSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770LSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk2.10A. Krezel1.60—Sep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10J. Slawomir1.60—Sep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.35D. Maszczynski2.80—Sep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60A. Staniczek2.10—Sep 7 · 22:25M. Karpiuk1.92J. Michalik1.73—Sep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.71A. Krezel1.94—Sep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.70M. Machelski1.95—Sep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Warzecha1.26—
A. Staniczek
Sep 7 · 17:10A. Staniczek2.25J. Slawomir1.54—Sep 7 · 18:25A. Staniczek1.50D. Maszczynski2.40—Sep 7 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.01A. Krezel1.66—Sep 7 · 20:45A. Staniczek3.90M. Warzecha1.19—Sep 7 · 21:35A. Staniczek2.10M. Karpiuk1.60—Sep 7 · 23:10A. Staniczek1.94M. Machelski1.71—Sep 8 · 24:25A. Staniczek3.90M. Warzecha1.19—Sep 8 · 01:35A. Staniczek2.01A. Krezel1.66—Sep 8 · 02:45A. Staniczek2.30J. Michalik1.50—
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