TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047922
Played Aug 31Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811117115––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:47 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHenryk Tkaczyk above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 64.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 17–3 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 3 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:47What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-3 in 20
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 14 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1656 vs Karpiuk 1281
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 375 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 100% vs Karpiuk 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Karpiuk 10%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +5 · Karpiuk +1
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.25 / Karpiuk 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13047922
Tkaczyk1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 367 of 542
Up 2–0, closes it93% 208 of 223
Up 1–0, closes it84% 282 of 336
Karpiuk3.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk10wins
AwayKarpiuk0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%8 of 8
AwayKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk8Karpiuk2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Tkaczyk6Karpiuk4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Tkaczyk8Karpiuk2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Tkaczyk6Karpiuk1n = 7Tkaczyk took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykKarpiukT − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.531.7+9.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime973 / 1472 vs 112 / 25066.1%44.8%973 / 1472 vs 112 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.25/Karpiuk 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk—11811113M. Karpiuk—511751
WAug 31 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—11911113M. Karpiuk—511961
WAug 24 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk—11911113M. Karpiuk—411491
WAug 23 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—1411113M. Karpiuk—12980
WAug 20 · 03:55H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Karpiuk—8860
WAug 19 · 21:55H. Tkaczyk—111179113M. Karpiuk—93111172
WAug 10 · 21:00H. Tkaczyk—61114113M. Karpiuk—1171221
WAug 10 · 16:35H. Tkaczyk—117611113M. Karpiuk—71111962
WJul 21 · 01:10H. Tkaczyk—1311173M. Karpiuk—115150
WJul 20 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—81113113M. Karpiuk—1141151
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113LAug 31 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.731111113M. Karpiuk2.005850
Upcoming Matches
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Sep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 7 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 7 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk1.36M. Lewczuk3.00—Sep 7 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.44M. Krutak2.63—Sep 7 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk1.57J. Zelezik2.25—Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——
M. Karpiuk
Sep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10J. Slawomir1.60—Sep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.35D. Maszczynski2.80—Sep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60A. Staniczek2.10—Sep 7 · 22:25M. Karpiuk1.92J. Michalik1.73—Sep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.71A. Krezel1.94—Sep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.70M. Machelski1.95—Sep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Warzecha1.26—
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