TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091627
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Krutak
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
14121171113611119
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Krutak above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 71.6%
105 points played in total.
H2H Michal Krutak 8–14 Henryk Tkaczyk Michal Krutak has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:38What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutak 1384 vs Tkaczyk 1661
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 277 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutak 0% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutak 30% vs Tkaczyk 60%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutak -5 · Tkaczyk -1
Krutak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutak 2.63 / Tkaczyk 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13091627
Krutak2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 37 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Tkaczyk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrutak2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrutakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkaczyk87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutak2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Krutak5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Krutak2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Krutak5Tkaczyk3n = 8Krutak took 5 of 8
S5Krutak2Tkaczyk4n = 6Tkaczyk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrutakTkaczykK − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.444.0−5.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutakTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 329 vs 990 / 148659%66.6%194 / 329 vs 990 / 1486Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykKrutak 2.63/Tkaczyk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.1%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krutak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 01:30M. Krutak—8360H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LAug 10 · 20:05M. Krutak—711921H. Tkaczyk—11611113
LJul 21 · 02:10M. Krutak—811881H. Tkaczyk—11411113
LJul 20 · 18:10M. Krutak—911811102H. Tkaczyk—116115123
LJul 2 · 21:20M. Krutak—7850H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJul 2 · 15:25M. Krutak—11117872H. Tkaczyk—971111113
LJun 29 · 22:35M. Krutak—213111152H. Tkaczyk—111577113
WJun 29 · 15:00M. Krutak—1291113113H. Tkaczyk—141151182
LJun 21 · 02:00M. Krutak—51271292H. Tkaczyk—11101110113
WJun 20 · 16:25M. Krutak—1211211113H. Tkaczyk—101311892
M. Krutak10
WSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113LSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123LSep 5 · 02:00M. Krutak2.702880C. Pawlik1.421111113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Krutak2.70471191A. Zmijewski1.3911117113LSep 4 · 23:35M. Krutak3.0010570J. Oracz1.331211113LSep 4 · 22:25D. Pyrek1.95811611123M. Krutak1.70117115102LSep 4 · 21:35M. Krutak1.731011551A. Kubiak1.9812611113LSep 4 · 20:00M. Krutak1.7561090D. Pyrek1.951112113WSep 4 · 18:45M. Krutak2.10311712113A. Zmijewski1.60118111072WSep 4 · 17:35M. Krutak2.60126146113J. Oracz1.411011121182
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113LSep 5 · 17:10K. Gudzik3.5011811113H. Tkaczyk1.25811241
Upcoming Matches
M. Krutak
H. Tkaczyk1 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 7 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 7 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk1.36M. Lewczuk3.00—Sep 7 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.44M. Krutak2.63—Sep 7 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk1.57J. Zelezik2.25—Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——
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