TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047920
Played Aug 31Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191151012119––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:46 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 64.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 9–4 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1459 vs Karpiuk 1281
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Karpiuk 20%
Lewczuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 70% vs Karpiuk 10%
Lewczuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +1 · Karpiuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.40 / Karpiuk 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Lewczuk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13047920
Lewczuk1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 161 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it94% 102 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it83% 122 of 147
Karpiuk2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk7wins
AwayKarpiuk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayKarpiuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk6Karpiuk4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk6Karpiuk4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S3Lewczuk7Karpiuk3n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S4Lewczuk3Karpiuk2n = 5Lewczuk took 3 of 5
S5Lewczuk2Karpiuk1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukKarpiukL − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.633.3+4.3per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 953 vs 112 / 25052.2%44.8%497 / 953 vs 112 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.40/Karpiuk 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk—41111113M. Karpiuk—117431
WAug 24 · 22:30M. Lewczuk—1111113M. Karpiuk—9990
LAug 24 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—116111072M. Karpiuk—811612113
LAug 21 · 01:55M. Lewczuk—81280M. Karpiuk—1114113
WAug 20 · 19:55M. Lewczuk—861111113M. Karpiuk—11112982
LAug 17 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—711931M. Karpiuk—11611113
WAug 17 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—1112113M. Karpiuk—61010
WAug 14 · 02:45M. Lewczuk—1411113M. Karpiuk—12670
WAug 13 · 23:05M. Lewczuk—1112133M. Karpiuk—910110
WAug 11 · 24:30M. Lewczuk—118911113M. Karpiuk—51111992
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591LSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113LAug 31 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.731111113M. Karpiuk2.005850
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