TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047828
Played Aug 31Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210911117711711
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:05 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 55.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 3–2 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:05What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1274 vs Skorupa 1353
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 0% vs Skorupa 60%
Skorupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 20% vs Skorupa 40%
Skorupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -5 · Skorupa -1
Karpiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.10 / Skorupa 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Skorupa)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13047828
Karpiuk2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Skorupa1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 141 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it76% 92 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKarpiuk3wins
AwaySkorupa2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkorupan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk3Skorupa2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
S2Karpiuk1Skorupa4n = 5Skorupa took 4 of 5
S3Karpiuk4Skorupa1n = 5Karpiuk took 4 of 5
S4Karpiuk1Skorupa3n = 4Skorupa took 3 of 4
S5Karpiuk2Skorupa1n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKarpiukSkorupaK − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.642.60.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 248 vs 284 / 57944.8%49.1%111 / 248 vs 284 / 579Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaKarpiuk 2.10/Skorupa 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk—12911772J. Skorupa—1011711113
LAug 31 · 01:25M. Karpiuk—121190J. Skorupa—1413113
WAug 30 · 19:20M. Karpiuk—16911113J. Skorupa—1411891
WJul 20 · 24:35M. Karpiuk—411118113J. Skorupa—11741192
WJul 19 · 18:30M. Karpiuk—125114113J. Skorupa—101151142
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.731111113M. Karpiuk2.005850
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591WSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582
Upcoming Matches
M. Karpiuk
Sep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10J. Slawomir1.60—Sep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.35D. Maszczynski2.80—Sep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60A. Staniczek2.10—Sep 7 · 22:25M. Karpiuk1.92J. Michalik1.73—Sep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.71A. Krezel1.94—Sep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.70M. Machelski1.95—Sep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Warzecha1.26—
J. Skorupa
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