TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047928
Played Aug 31Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118115––––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:51 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 56.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 7–6 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1441 vs Karpiuk 1298
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Karpiuk 0%
Nocun
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Karpiuk 20%
Nocun
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Karpiuk -5
Karpiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nocun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.73 / Karpiuk 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Nocun)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13047928
Nocun1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 308 of 465
Up 2–0, closes it96% 147 of 154
Up 1–0, closes it87% 218 of 251
Karpiuk2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun5wins
AwayKarpiuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun75%3 of 4
AwayKarpiuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun4Karpiuk6n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S2Nocun7Karpiuk3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Nocun4Karpiuk6n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S4Nocun7Karpiuk3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S5Nocun1Karpiuk3n = 4Karpiuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunKarpiukN − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.741.70.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime627 / 1049 vs 111 / 24559.8%45.3%627 / 1049 vs 111 / 245Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.73/Karpiuk 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 21:20Z. Nocun—119119113M. Karpiuk—81181192
WAug 30 · 15:25Z. Nocun—101113113M. Karpiuk—1261131
LAug 20 · 01:55Z. Nocun—101181192M. Karpiuk—129113113
WJul 19 · 21:20Z. Nocun—41111113M. Karpiuk—118861
WJul 19 · 15:25Z. Nocun—111311113M. Karpiuk—6111371
LJul 6 · 23:20Z. Nocun—3118101M. Karpiuk—11511123
LJul 6 · 17:20Z. Nocun—312311102M. Karpiuk—1110116123
WJul 2 · 23:45Z. Nocun—111117123M. Karpiuk—5519101
LJul 2 · 15:50Z. Nocun—124391M. Karpiuk—101111113
LJun 29 · 22:55Z. Nocun—48131132M. Karpiuk—1111117113
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Nocun
Nothing scheduled
M. Karpiuk
Sep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10J. Slawomir1.60—Sep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.35D. Maszczynski2.80—Sep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60A. Staniczek2.10—Sep 7 · 22:25M. Karpiuk1.92J. Michalik1.73—Sep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.71A. Krezel1.94—Sep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.70M. Machelski1.95—Sep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Warzecha1.26—
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