TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047924
Played Aug 31Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118911117711611
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 3–5 Mateusz Karpiuk Jerzy Michalik has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:50What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Karpiuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1341 vs Karpiuk 1274
Michalik
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 80% vs Karpiuk 0%
Michalik
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 70% vs Karpiuk 0%
Michalik
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +3 · Karpiuk -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpiuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.83 / Karpiuk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karpiuk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13047924
Michalik1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Karpiuk1.83
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMichalik3wins
AwayKarpiuk5wins
5 of 8 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik42.9%3 of 7
AwayKarpiukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik7Karpiuk1n = 8Michalik took 7 of 8
S2Michalik2Karpiuk6n = 8Karpiuk took 6 of 8
S3Michalik3Karpiuk5n = 8Karpiuk took 5 of 8
S4Michalik5Karpiuk3n = 8Michalik took 5 of 8
S5Michalik1Karpiuk4n = 5Karpiuk took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMichalikKarpiukM − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match40.445.2−4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime536 / 1152 vs 111 / 24846.5%44.8%536 / 1152 vs 111 / 248Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukMichalik 1.83/Karpiuk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 9 · 01:00J. Michalik—11611113M. Karpiuk—811791
LAug 8 · 18:55J. Michalik—111031132M. Karpiuk—712119113
LJul 20 · 23:20J. Michalik—111041162M. Karpiuk—812119113
WJul 15 · 22:10J. Michalik—11118113M. Karpiuk—871171
LJul 15 · 19:40J. Michalik—51312772M. Karpiuk—11111011113
WJul 13 · 22:10J. Michalik—129134113M. Karpiuk—1011111192
LJul 6 · 21:00J. Michalik—11331172M. Karpiuk—911118113
LJun 30 · 02:10J. Michalik—119871M. Karpiuk—41111113
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113LAug 31 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.731111113M. Karpiuk2.005850
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalik
M. Karpiuk
Sep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10J. Slawomir1.60—Sep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.35D. Maszczynski2.80—Sep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60A. Staniczek2.10—Sep 7 · 22:25M. Karpiuk1.92J. Michalik1.73—Sep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.71A. Krezel1.94—Sep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.70M. Machelski1.95—Sep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Warzecha1.26—
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