TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047823
Played Sep 1Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111181113115118
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Karpiuk above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 55.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 3–2 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:03What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skorupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1268 vs Skorupa 1332
Skorupa
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 20% vs Skorupa 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 10% vs Skorupa 40%
Skorupa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -2 · Skorupa -4
Skorupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.91 / Skorupa 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skorupa)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13047823
Karpiuk1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Skorupa1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 141 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it76% 92 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKarpiuk3wins
AwaySkorupa2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkorupan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk3Skorupa2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
S2Karpiuk1Skorupa4n = 5Skorupa took 4 of 5
S3Karpiuk4Skorupa1n = 5Karpiuk took 4 of 5
S4Karpiuk1Skorupa3n = 4Skorupa took 3 of 4
S5Karpiuk2Skorupa1n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKarpiukSkorupaK − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.642.60.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 251 vs 284 / 58244.6%48.8%112 / 251 vs 284 / 582Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaKarpiuk 1.91/Skorupa 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk—12911772J. Skorupa—1011711113
LAug 31 · 01:25M. Karpiuk—121190J. Skorupa—1413113
WAug 30 · 19:20M. Karpiuk—16911113J. Skorupa—1411891
WJul 20 · 24:35M. Karpiuk—411118113J. Skorupa—11741192
WJul 19 · 18:30M. Karpiuk—125114113J. Skorupa—101151142
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113LAug 31 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.731111113M. Karpiuk2.005850
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591WSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113
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J. Skorupa
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