TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088276
Played Sep 7Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91110121191012––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 84 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 12–13 Jakub Skorupa Jacek Zelezik has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1465 vs Skorupa 1318
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 80% vs Skorupa 20%
Zelezik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 70% vs Skorupa 30%
Zelezik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +3 · Skorupa -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.73 / Skorupa 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Zelezik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13088276
Zelezik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 179 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it82% 139 of 169
Skorupa2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik7wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik71.4%5 of 7
AwaySkorupa33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik7Skorupa3n = 10Zelezik took 7 of 10
S2Zelezik5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Zelezik5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelezik6Skorupa4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S5Zelezik3Skorupa2n = 5Zelezik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikSkorupaZ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.141.1+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 668 vs 297 / 61554%48.3%361 / 668 vs 297 / 615Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.73/Skorupa 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik—11117133J. Skorupa—9911111
WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik—461111113J. Skorupa—11116442
LSep 4 · 01:55J. Zelezik—5111221J. Skorupa—11814113
WSep 3 · 19:55J. Zelezik—111410113J. Skorupa—7121261
WAug 24 · 22:00J. Zelezik—121365133J. Skorupa—10111111112
WAug 19 · 04:40J. Zelezik—119146113J. Skorupa—811121152
WAug 18 · 22:40J. Zelezik—91111113J. Skorupa—115741
LAug 18 · 01:10J. Zelezik—112117102J. Skorupa—811811123
LJul 8 · 03:55J. Zelezik—11861182J. Skorupa—811115113
WJul 7 · 21:55J. Zelezik—11912113J. Skorupa—1111081
J. Zelezik10
WSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113LSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132WSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442
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