TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087316
Played Sep 7Finished
Artur Kubiak
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119611118––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Kubiak above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Artur Kubiak 12–7 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:29What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1342 vs Skorupa 1340
Kubiak
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 20% vs Skorupa 40%
Skorupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 40% vs Skorupa 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak -4 · Skorupa -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 1.67 / Skorupa 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kubiak)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13087316
Kubiak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 168 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it94% 79 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it83% 115 of 138
Skorupa2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubiak6wins
AwaySkorupa4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubiak66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkorupa42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubiak3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S2Kubiak7Skorupa3n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S3Kubiak5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Kubiak5Skorupa3n = 8Kubiak took 5 of 8
S5Kubiak3Skorupa2n = 5Kubiak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubiakSkorupaK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.539.9−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime524 / 939 vs 297 / 61455.8%48.4%524 / 939 vs 297 / 614Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakKubiak 1.67/Skorupa 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 22:35A. Kubiak—87111192J. Skorupa—111189113
WAug 30 · 15:00A. Kubiak—711911113J. Skorupa—11611972
LAug 29 · 23:10A. Kubiak—5540J. Skorupa—1111113
WAug 29 · 17:10A. Kubiak—5121110123J. Skorupa—1110512102
LAug 25 · 02:20A. Kubiak—11115692J. Skorupa—691111113
LJul 18 · 23:10A. Kubiak—411851J. Skorupa—11911113
WJul 18 · 17:10A. Kubiak—611711113J. Skorupa—11911692
WJun 22 · 23:20A. Kubiak—101114113J. Skorupa—1271291
WJun 22 · 17:20A. Kubiak—11811113J. Skorupa—811461
WMay 24 · 02:20A. Kubiak—1111113J. Skorupa—5860
A. Kubiak10
LSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:35A. Kubiak3.4041111592J. Oracz1.28116611113LSep 5 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.441111113A. Kubiak2.605660LSep 4 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.461111133A. Kubiak2.4748110WSep 4 · 21:35M. Krutak1.731011551A. Kubiak1.9812611113LSep 4 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.551111113A. Kubiak2.253350LSep 4 · 19:35A. Kubiak2.9051260J. Oracz1.351114113WSep 4 · 18:25D. Pyrek1.71911101192A. Kubiak2.00116124113WSep 4 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.44119111192A. Kubiak2.55811139113WSep 4 · 15:35M. Krutak1.576970A. Kubiak2.251111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171LSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860
Upcoming Matches
A. Kubiak
Sep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.10M. Krutak1.67—Sep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.00J. Zelezik1.36—Sep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.63H. Tkaczyk1.44—Sep 7 · 21:45A. Kubiak2.10M. Krutak1.67—Sep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.67J. Skorupa2.10—Sep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63H. Tkaczyk1.44—Sep 8 · 24:30A. Kubiak3.00J. Zelezik1.36—Sep 8 · 01:10A. Kubiak1.73M. Lewczuk2.00—
J. Skorupa
Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa2.00J. Zelezik1.73—Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa2.25M. Lewczuk1.57—Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa2.63H. Tkaczyk1.44—Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa1.83M. Krutak1.83—Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa2.00J. Zelezik1.73—Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa2.10A. Kubiak1.67—Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa2.25M. Lewczuk1.57—Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa2.63H. Tkaczyk1.44—Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa1.83M. Krutak1.83—
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