TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13079705
Played Sep 5Finished
Cezary Pawlik
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116116––––
Artur Kubiak
Away
2.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
50 points played in total.
Set by set
115116116––––
H2H Cezary Pawlik 29–32 Artur Kubiak Cezary Pawlik has won 29 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (64%)
Pawlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-32 in 61
Kubiak
Wrong
gap of 3 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1567 vs Kubiak 1368
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 80% vs Kubiak 40%
Pawlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 60% vs Kubiak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +1 · Kubiak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.44 / Kubiak 2.60
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Pawlik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13079705
Pawlik1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it81% 89 of 110
Kubiak2.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 68 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik7wins
AwayKubiak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik77.8%7 of 9
AwayKubiakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik9Kubiak1n = 10Pawlik took 9 of 10
S2Pawlik8Kubiak2n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S3Pawlik5Kubiak5n = 10split evenly
S4Pawlik4Kubiak3n = 7Pawlik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikKubiakP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.131.3+7.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime269 / 463 vs 524 / 93658.1%56%269 / 463 vs 524 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.44/Kubiak 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.6%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 20:45C. Pawlik—1111113A. Kubiak—3350
WAug 30 · 24:45C. Pawlik—111113123A. Kubiak—8515101
WAug 29 · 18:45C. Pawlik—1111113A. Kubiak—2770
WAug 16 · 02:00C. Pawlik—111011113A. Kubiak—712441
LAug 15 · 16:25C. Pawlik—11117752A. Kubiak—761111113
WAug 9 · 02:00C. Pawlik—11115123A. Kubiak—6911101
LAug 8 · 16:25C. Pawlik—1011581A. Kubiak—12611113
LJul 17 · 22:00C. Pawlik—11118982A. Kubiak—791111113
WJul 17 · 18:00C. Pawlik—11811113A. Kubiak—611491
WJun 20 · 24:00C. Pawlik—1111113A. Kubiak—4880
C. Pawlik10
WSep 6 · 02:00A. Krezel2.754611131C. Pawlik1.3711117153LSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182LSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113LSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113WSep 5 · 22:00K. Gudzik2.8569131172C. Pawlik1.361111115113WSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152WSep 5 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.761511113A. Fomin1.9513690LSep 5 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.428111051K. Gudzik2.6011512113WSep 5 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.461111113A. Krezel2.474940WSep 5 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.83111011113J. Oracz1.83912991
A. Kubiak10
LSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:35A. Kubiak3.4041111592J. Oracz1.28116611113LSep 4 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.461111133A. Kubiak2.4748110WSep 4 · 21:35M. Krutak1.731011551A. Kubiak1.9812611113LSep 4 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.551111113A. Kubiak2.253350LSep 4 · 19:35A. Kubiak2.9051260J. Oracz1.351114113WSep 4 · 18:25D. Pyrek1.71911101192A. Kubiak2.00116124113WSep 4 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.44119111192A. Kubiak2.55811139113WSep 4 · 15:35M. Krutak1.576970A. Kubiak2.251111113LAug 31 · 01:45Z. Nocun1.91151113113A. Kubiak1.801361521
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