TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047238
Played Aug 31Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
15131161315112––
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 86 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 57.4%
86 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 24–32 Artur Kubiak Zbigniew Nocun has won 24 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:39What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kubiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-32 in 56
Kubiak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1460 vs Kubiak 1343
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 100% vs Kubiak 20%
Nocun
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 80% vs Kubiak 40%
Nocun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +5 · Kubiak -1
Nocun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.91 / Kubiak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nocun)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13047238
Nocun1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 75 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Kubiak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 170 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it94% 82 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it82% 117 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun3wins
AwayKubiak7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun50%2 of 4
AwayKubiak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun4Kubiak6n = 10Kubiak took 6 of 10
S2Nocun3Kubiak7n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S3Nocun6Kubiak4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S4Nocun3Kubiak4n = 7Kubiak took 4 of 7
S5Nocun1Kubiak3n = 4Kubiak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunKubiakN − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.5−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime626 / 1046 vs 528 / 93959.9%56.2%626 / 1046 vs 528 / 939Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.91/Kubiak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 01:10Z. Nocun—111011992A. Kubiak—712611113
LAug 15 · 19:10Z. Nocun—11113592A. Kubiak—741111113
WAug 13 · 01:45Z. Nocun—11811113A. Kubiak—811661
LAug 12 · 16:15Z. Nocun—61170A. Kubiak—1113113
WJun 30 · 24:30Z. Nocun—781111113A. Kubiak—11119432
LJun 29 · 18:30Z. Nocun—91191192A. Kubiak—114115113
LJun 28 · 23:20Z. Nocun—9990A. Kubiak—1111113
LJun 28 · 17:20Z. Nocun—651451A. Kubiak—111112113
LJun 22 · 02:35Z. Nocun—751181A. Kubiak—11117113
WJun 21 · 18:10Z. Nocun—1111113A. Kubiak—8750
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162
A. Kubiak10
LSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:35A. Kubiak3.4041111592J. Oracz1.28116611113LSep 5 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.441111113A. Kubiak2.605660LSep 4 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.461111133A. Kubiak2.4748110WSep 4 · 21:35M. Krutak1.731011551A. Kubiak1.9812611113LSep 4 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.551111113A. Kubiak2.253350LSep 4 · 19:35A. Kubiak2.9051260J. Oracz1.351114113WSep 4 · 18:25D. Pyrek1.71911101192A. Kubiak2.00116124113WSep 4 · 17:10A. Zmijewski1.44119111192A. Kubiak2.55811139113WSep 4 · 15:35M. Krutak1.576970A. Kubiak2.251111113
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