TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13084507
Played Sep 5Finished
Cezary Pawlik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511911––––
Jacek Oracz
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeCezary Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
711511911––––
H2H Cezary Pawlik 30–29 Jacek Oracz Jacek Oracz has won 29 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:51What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-29 in 59
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1614 vs Oracz 1588
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 80% vs Oracz 100%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 90% vs Oracz 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +3 · Oracz +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.80 / Oracz 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13084507
Pawlik1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 121 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it81% 93 of 115
Oracz1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik7wins
AwayOracz3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik87.5%7 of 8
AwayOraczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik8Oracz2n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S2Pawlik5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Pawlik5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S4Pawlik5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S5Pawlik2Oracz1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikOraczP − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.842.80.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 472 vs 657 / 91358.7%72%277 / 472 vs 657 / 913Avg sets wonper match2.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.80/Oracz 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 15:10C. Pawlik—111011113J. Oracz—912991
WSep 4 · 22:50C. Pawlik—1161114113J. Oracz—91191662
LSep 4 · 15:10C. Pawlik—128881J. Oracz—101111113
WAug 22 · 02:00C. Pawlik—11511113J. Oracz—711381
WAug 21 · 16:25C. Pawlik—111112123J. Oracz—81310101
LAug 15 · 24:45C. Pawlik—811991J. Oracz—11811113
WAug 14 · 18:45C. Pawlik—11117133J. Oracz—9911111
WAug 8 · 02:00C. Pawlik—16115113J. Oracz—1481191
LAug 7 · 16:25C. Pawlik—51112682J. Oracz—1191011113
WJul 31 · 22:50C. Pawlik—141166113J. Oracz—128111182
C. Pawlik10
WSep 6 · 02:00A. Krezel2.754611131C. Pawlik1.3711117153LSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182LSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 22:00K. Gudzik2.8569131172C. Pawlik1.361111115113WSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152WSep 5 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.761511113A. Fomin1.9513690LSep 5 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.428111051K. Gudzik2.6011512113WSep 5 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.461111113A. Krezel2.474940WSep 5 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.83111011113J. Oracz1.83912991WSep 5 · 02:00M. Krutak2.702880C. Pawlik1.421111113
J. Oracz10
WSep 6 · 02:20K. Gudzik2.806750J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471LSep 5 · 23:35A. Krezel2.65111110113J. Oracz1.40651291WSep 5 · 21:10A. Fomin2.7561090J. Oracz1.401112113WSep 5 · 20:20K. Gudzik2.60117581J. Oracz1.4281111113WSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 17:35A. Krezel2.6097111172J. Oracz1.41111129113WSep 5 · 16:50A. Fomin2.706570J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 5 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.83111011113J. Oracz1.83912991WSep 5 · 02:20A. Zmijewski2.4041311772J. Oracz1.501111811113
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