Zbigniew Nocun vs Mateusz Karpiuk 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047918

Played Sep 1Finished

Zbigniew Nocun

Home

1.62

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

711116711711––

Mateusz Karpiuk

Away

2.20

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Mateusz Karpiuk to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Mateusz Karpiuk below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 7-11

Set 4 · 7-11

Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 54.0%

71 points played in total.

H2H Zbigniew Nocun 8–6 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 6 of their 14 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:35

What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Nocun

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

8-6 in 14

Nocun

Wrong

gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Nocun 1484 vs Karpiuk 1273

Nocun

Wrong

both rated, 211 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Nocun 80% vs Karpiuk 40%

Nocun

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Nocun 70% vs Karpiuk 20%

Nocun

Wrong

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Nocun -1 · Karpiuk +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Nocun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNocun 1.61 / Karpiuk 2.20

Signal prob.61% / 39%

Edge (Nocun)+3.2pp

TT Elite Series · #13047918

Nocun1.61

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite66% won 308 of 465

Up 2–0, closes it96% 147 of 154

Up 1–0, closes it87% 218 of 251

Karpiuk2.20

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog43% won 55 of 127

Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67

Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNocun6wins

AwayKarpiuk4wins

3 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNocun80%4 of 5

AwayKarpiuk60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Nocun5Karpiuk5n = 10split evenly

S2Nocun8Karpiuk2n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10

S3Nocun4Karpiuk6n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10

S4Nocun6Karpiuk3n = 9Nocun took 6 of 9

S5Nocun1Karpiuk2n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricNocunKarpiukN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.138.4+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNocunKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime633 / 1056 vs 113 / 25259.9%44.8%633 / 1056 vs 113 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Nocun

Nocun 1.61/Karpiuk 2.20

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.9%

Nocun · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Karpiuk won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WAug 31 · 18:10Z. Nocun—1111113M. Karpiuk—5850

WAug 30 · 21:20Z. Nocun—119119113M. Karpiuk—81181192

WAug 30 · 15:25Z. Nocun—101113113M. Karpiuk—1261131

LAug 20 · 01:55Z. Nocun—101181192M. Karpiuk—129113113

WJul 19 · 21:20Z. Nocun—41111113M. Karpiuk—118861

WJul 19 · 15:25Z. Nocun—111311113M. Karpiuk—6111371

LJul 6 · 23:20Z. Nocun—3118101M. Karpiuk—11511123

LJul 6 · 17:20Z. Nocun—312311102M. Karpiuk—1110116123

WJul 2 · 23:45Z. Nocun—111117123M. Karpiuk—5519101

LJul 2 · 15:50Z. Nocun—124391M. Karpiuk—101111113

Z. Nocun10

LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113 LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192 WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113 LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113 LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143 LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113 WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113 LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340 WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171 WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162

M. Karpiuk10

LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133 LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960 WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281 WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582 LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291 LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751 WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113 LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431 LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113 LAug 31 · 18:10Z. Nocun1.731111113M. Karpiuk2.005850

Upcoming Matches

Z. Nocun

Nothing scheduled

M. Karpiuk

Sep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10J. Slawomir1.60—Sep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.35D. Maszczynski2.80—Sep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60A. Staniczek2.10—Sep 7 · 22:25M. Karpiuk1.92J. Michalik1.73—Sep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.71A. Krezel1.94—Sep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.70M. Machelski1.95—Sep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Warzecha1.26—

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