TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047929
Played Aug 31Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115911119116––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:51 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHenryk Tkaczyk above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 68.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 14–3 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:51What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-3 in 17
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1642 vs Karpiuk 1274
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 368 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 40% vs Karpiuk 0%
Tkaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Karpiuk 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +1 · Karpiuk -5
Karpiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.25 / Karpiuk 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13047929
Tkaczyk1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 367 of 542
Up 2–0, closes it93% 208 of 223
Up 1–0, closes it84% 282 of 336
Karpiuk3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk10wins
AwayKarpiuk0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%8 of 8
AwayKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk8Karpiuk2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Tkaczyk9Karpiuk1n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S3Tkaczyk6Karpiuk4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Tkaczyk4Karpiuk2n = 6Tkaczyk took 4 of 6
S5Tkaczyk3Karpiuk0n = 3Tkaczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykKarpiukT − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.732.4+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime971 / 1470 vs 111 / 24866.1%44.8%971 / 1470 vs 111 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.25/Karpiuk 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—1411113M. Karpiuk—12980
WAug 20 · 03:55H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Karpiuk—8860
WAug 19 · 21:55H. Tkaczyk—111179113M. Karpiuk—93111172
WAug 10 · 21:00H. Tkaczyk—61114113M. Karpiuk—1171221
WAug 10 · 16:35H. Tkaczyk—117611113M. Karpiuk—71111962
WJul 21 · 01:10H. Tkaczyk—1311173M. Karpiuk—115150
WJul 20 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—81113113M. Karpiuk—1141151
WJul 16 · 23:20H. Tkaczyk—111155113M. Karpiuk—97111162
WJul 16 · 17:20H. Tkaczyk—11117113M. Karpiuk—371151
WJul 13 · 23:20H. Tkaczyk—1111123M. Karpiuk—68100
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113
Upcoming Matches
H. Tkaczyk1 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 7 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 7 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk1.36M. Lewczuk3.00—Sep 7 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.44M. Krutak2.63—Sep 7 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk1.57J. Zelezik2.25—Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——
M. Karpiuk
Sep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10J. Slawomir1.60—Sep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.35D. Maszczynski2.80—Sep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60A. Staniczek2.10—Sep 7 · 22:25M. Karpiuk1.92J. Michalik1.73—Sep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.71A. Krezel1.94—Sep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.70M. Machelski1.95—Sep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.25M. Warzecha1.26—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.