TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082780
Played Sep 6Finished
Adam Staniczek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214711116611––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:30 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Staniczek above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 78 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 67.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Adam Staniczek 6–10 Grzegorz Mucha Adam Staniczek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Mucha
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staniczek 1189 vs Mucha 1375
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staniczek 20% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staniczek 30% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staniczek -2 · Mucha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Mucha)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaniczek 2.63 / Mucha 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Mucha)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13082780
Staniczek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 111 of 435
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 278
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 207
Mucha1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 72 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 51 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaniczek5wins
AwayMucha5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaniczek100%3 of 3
AwayMucha71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staniczek3Mucha7n = 10Mucha took 7 of 10
S2Staniczek6Mucha4n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S3Staniczek4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S4Staniczek3Mucha3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaniczekMuchaS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.234.3−0.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaniczekMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 1008 vs 120 / 24136.4%49.8%367 / 1008 vs 120 / 241Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaStaniczek 2.63/Mucha 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 01:25A. Staniczek—1271161G. Mucha—14116113
LSep 5 · 19:20A. Staniczek—311481G. Mucha—11411113
WAug 13 · 02:35A. Staniczek—71111143G. Mucha—1178121
LAug 12 · 18:10A. Staniczek—7880G. Mucha—1111113
WAug 9 · 21:00A. Staniczek—9111611113G. Mucha—118141352
WAug 9 · 16:35A. Staniczek—11117113G. Mucha—831131
WJul 12 · 23:45A. Staniczek—1111113G. Mucha—8480
WJul 12 · 15:50A. Staniczek—11115113G. Mucha—671161
LJul 8 · 21:45A. Staniczek—8560G. Mucha—1111113
LJul 8 · 17:45A. Staniczek—10790G. Mucha—1211113
A. Staniczek10
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962LSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880WSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113LSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 19:20A. Staniczek2.63311481G. Mucha1.4411411113WSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133LSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770LSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172WSep 4 · 05:05A. Barton2.90791181A. Staniczek1.3511114113
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562WSep 5 · 19:20A. Staniczek2.63311481G. Mucha1.4411411113
Upcoming Matches
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