TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082613
Played Sep 5Finished
Dariusz Maszczynski
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113311611––––
Adam Staniczek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:00 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeAdam Staniczek to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDariusz Maszczynski above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 55 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Adam Staniczek at 65.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 5–28 Adam Staniczek Dariusz Maszczynski has won 5 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Staniczek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-28 in 33
Staniczek
Correct
gap of 23 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1223 vs Staniczek 1207
Maszczynski
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 40% vs Staniczek 20%
Maszczynski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 30% vs Staniczek 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski +1 · Staniczek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Staniczek) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 2.38 / Staniczek 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Staniczek)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13082613
Maszczynski2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog24% won 63 of 262
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 118
Staniczek1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 93 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it89% 70 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaszczynski1wins
AwayStaniczek9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStaniczek leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaszczynskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStaniczek88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski1Staniczek9n = 10Staniczek took 9 of 10
S2Maszczynski4Staniczek6n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S3Maszczynski3Staniczek7n = 10Staniczek took 7 of 10
S4Maszczynski3Staniczek4n = 7Staniczek took 4 of 7
S5Maszczynski1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiStaniczekM − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.241.6−8.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 402 vs 366 / 100421.9%36.5%88 / 402 vs 366 / 1004Avg sets wonper match1.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match33.433.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaniczekMaszczynski 2.38/Staniczek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Staniczek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 14:30D. Maszczynski—771161A. Staniczek—11117113
LAug 24 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—9540A. Staniczek—1111113
LAug 17 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—211861A. Staniczek—11911113
LAug 10 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—68111152A. Staniczek—111188113
LAug 3 · 15:35D. Maszczynski—7650A. Staniczek—1111113
WJul 27 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—811511133A. Staniczek—116113112
LJul 20 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—91111892A. Staniczek—119811113
LJul 13 · 17:10D. Maszczynski—61271392A. Staniczek—11101111113
LJul 6 · 18:25D. Maszczynski—7780A. Staniczek—1111113
LJul 5 · 01:45D. Maszczynski—117951A. Staniczek—71111113
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122LSep 5 · 23:20D. Maszczynski3.7511881172G. Mucha1.25311119113WSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113WSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590LSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113LSep 5 · 17:20D. Maszczynski3.405911101G. Mucha1.3011112123LSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172WAug 31 · 20:30M. Machelski1.7761111932D. Maszczynski1.95116511113
A. Staniczek10
WSep 6 · 02:35O. Jedrzejowski1.409760A. Staniczek2.751111113LSep 6 · 01:25A. Staniczek2.631271161G. Mucha1.4414116113LSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962LSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 19:20A. Staniczek2.63311481G. Mucha1.4411411113WSep 5 · 18:10O. Jedrzejowski1.3087110A. Staniczek3.401111133LSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770LSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172WSep 4 · 05:05A. Barton2.90791181A. Staniczek1.3511114113
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