TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082421
Played Sep 5Finished
Dariusz Maszczynski
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113811811119711
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:12 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDariusz Maszczynski above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 75.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 1–7 Grzegorz Mucha Dariusz Maszczynski has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Mucha
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1234 vs Mucha 1378
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 40% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 40% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski +1 · Mucha -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Mucha) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 3.75 / Mucha 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Mucha)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13082421
Maszczynski3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 63 of 262
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 118
Mucha1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 72 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 51 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMaszczynski1wins
AwayMucha7wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMucha leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaszczynski0%0 of 3
AwayMucha80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski3Mucha5n = 8Mucha took 5 of 8
S2Maszczynski2Mucha6n = 8Mucha took 6 of 8
S3Maszczynski5Mucha3n = 8Maszczynski took 5 of 8
S4Maszczynski3Mucha5n = 8Mucha took 5 of 8
S5Maszczynski0Mucha3n = 3Mucha took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiMuchaMaszczynski − MuchaBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match39.543.5−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 405 vs 119 / 24022%49.6%89 / 405 vs 119 / 240Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMaszczynski 3.75/Mucha 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 5 · 23:20D. Maszczynski—11881172G. Mucha—311119113
LSep 5 · 17:20D. Maszczynski—5911101G. Mucha—11112123
LAug 16 · 01:25D. Maszczynski—1386101G. Mucha—111111123
LAug 15 · 19:20D. Maszczynski—61141182G. Mucha—119119113
WAug 9 · 01:25D. Maszczynski—81211113G. Mucha—1110881
LAug 8 · 19:20D. Maszczynski—9811111G. Mucha—11119133
LJul 5 · 24:10D. Maszczynski—971161G. Mucha—11118113
LJul 4 · 20:30D. Maszczynski—11711972G. Mucha—811811113
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113LSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113WSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590LSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113LSep 5 · 17:20D. Maszczynski3.405911101G. Mucha1.3011112123LSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172WAug 31 · 20:30M. Machelski1.7761111932D. Maszczynski1.95116511113
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562WSep 5 · 17:20D. Maszczynski3.405911101G. Mucha1.3011112123
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