TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093711
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.60
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111161148111210
Dariusz Maszczynski
Away
2.15
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:03 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
5111161148111210
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 2–2 Dariusz Maszczynski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1277 vs Maszczynski 1206
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 40% vs Maszczynski 0%
Karpiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 40% vs Maszczynski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -3 · Maszczynski -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (0%) is below what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.60 / Maszczynski 2.15
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Karpiuk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13093711
Karpiuk1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 56 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 38 of 55
Maszczynski2.15
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog25% won 66 of 269
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKarpiuk2wins
AwayMaszczynski2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk2Maszczynski2n = 4split evenly
S2Karpiuk3Maszczynski1n = 4Karpiuk took 3 of 4
S3Karpiuk2Maszczynski2n = 4split evenly
S4Karpiuk2Maszczynski1n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKarpiukMaszczynskiK − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.538.2+2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 257 vs 90 / 41144.8%21.9%115 / 257 vs 90 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.033.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukKarpiuk 1.60/Maszczynski 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 9 · 24:10M. Karpiuk—11891292D. Maszczynski—9111110113
WAug 8 · 20:30M. Karpiuk—91111113D. Maszczynski—117791
LJul 11 · 22:35M. Karpiuk—8111091D. Maszczynski—11812113
WJul 11 · 15:00M. Karpiuk—1111113D. Maszczynski—8890
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10671151J. Slawomir1.6011117113LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 7 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1511138113D. Maszczynski4.507111181LSep 7 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.40511681A. Staniczek1.5011911113LSep 7 · 16:50D. Maszczynski2.605780A. Krezel1.411111113LSep 7 · 16:00J. Slawomir1.261111113D. Maszczynski3.402990LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122LSep 5 · 23:20D. Maszczynski3.7511881172G. Mucha1.25311119113WSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113LSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113WSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590
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