TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093719
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611711117511––
Janus Slawomir
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeJanus Slawomir to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
611711117511––
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 2–2 Janus Slawomir Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Slawomir
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1283 vs Slawomir 1493
Slawomir
Correct
both rated, 211 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 60% vs Slawomir 100%
Slawomir
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 40% vs Slawomir 80%
Slawomir
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -2 · Slawomir +5
Slawomir
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Slawomir) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawomir form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 2.10 / Slawomir 1.60
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Slawomir)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13093719
Karpiuk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 58 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Slawomir1.60
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 37 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKarpiuk2wins
AwaySlawomir2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk2Slawomir2n = 4split evenly
S2Karpiuk3Slawomir1n = 4Karpiuk took 3 of 4
S3Karpiuk2Slawomir2n = 4split evenly
S4Karpiuk2Slawomir1n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKarpiukSlawomirK − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match41.037.2+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukSlawomirBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 256 vs 74 / 12944.9%57.4%115 / 256 vs 74 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlawomirKarpiuk 2.10/Slawomir 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Slawomir · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Slawomir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 19 · 19:55M. Karpiuk—1111113J. Slawomir—8560
WAug 12 · 19:55M. Karpiuk—11115123J. Slawomir—7911101
LJul 11 · 20:59M. Karpiuk—9101112102J. Slawomir—1112710123
LJul 11 · 16:35M. Karpiuk—7111481J. Slawomir—11316113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751WAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik1.8311911762M. Karpiuk1.83811711113LAug 31 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.4441111113M. Karpiuk2.63117431LAug 31 · 19:20M. Karpiuk2.1012911772J. Skorupa1.671011711113
J. Slawomir10
WSep 7 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.405940J. Slawomir2.751111113WSep 7 · 17:10J. Slawomir1.5481111113A. Staniczek2.25117781WSep 7 · 16:00J. Slawomir1.261111113D. Maszczynski3.402990WSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591WSep 7 · 06:45J. Slawomir1.1015811113W. Stechly5.551311491WSep 7 · 05:35J. Slawomir1.121191110133A. Barton5.10411312112WSep 7 · 04:25A. Zmijewski1.54111061282J. Slawomir2.354121110113LSep 7 · 03:35J. Slawomir1.85111011862M. Wolny1.85512711113LSep 2 · 22:20J. Slawomir1.8591151292Z. Nocun1.801181110113WSep 2 · 21:05J. Slawomir1.931111113K. Gudzik1.753580
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