TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13081956
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomasz Kocik
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111161141311––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:54 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeTomasz Kocik to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Kocik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-11
Point 72 set 4, 12-11 — our read held Tomasz Kocik at 69.1%
72 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tomasz Kocik 2–0 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:54What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kocik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kocik 1554 vs Mucha 1381
Kocik
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocik 100% vs Mucha 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocik 70% vs Mucha 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocik +5 · Mucha +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kocik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocik 1.40 / Mucha 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kocik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13081956
Kocik1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 38 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Mucha2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 42 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKocik2wins
AwayMucha0wins
Kocik leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKocikMuchaK − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.027.5+12.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 78 vs 115 / 23270.5%49.6%55 / 78 vs 115 / 232Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocikKocik 1.40/Mucha 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Kocik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kocik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 22 · 21:10T. Kocik—101111113G. Mucha—125451
WAug 22 · 16:50T. Kocik—1111153G. Mucha—88130
T. Kocik10
WSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 01:00O. Jedrzejowski2.38114491T. Kocik1.5321111113WSep 6 · 24:10T. Kocik1.241111811113A. Staniczek3.5513911962WSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191WSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Kocik1.2011117113A. Staniczek4.33691191LSep 5 · 18:55T. Kocik1.61981191O. Jedrzejowski2.2011118113LSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WAug 30 · 02:00C. Pawlik2.005770T. Kocik1.711111113
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 5 · 22:35T. Kocik1.3011811113G. Mucha3.40611191
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