TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093698
Played Sep 7Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191311811118––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.92
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
1191311811118––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 3–6 Mateusz Karpiuk Jerzy Michalik has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (53%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Karpiuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1439 vs Karpiuk 1272
Michalik
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Karpiuk 20%
Michalik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Karpiuk 40%
Michalik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +1 · Karpiuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.73 / Karpiuk 1.92
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalik)+1.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093698
Michalik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 151 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it77% 109 of 142
Karpiuk1.92
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 58 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMichalik3wins
AwayKarpiuk6wins
6 of 9 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 6–3, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik37.5%3 of 8
AwayKarpiukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik8Karpiuk1n = 9Michalik took 8 of 9
S2Michalik2Karpiuk7n = 9Karpiuk took 7 of 9
S3Michalik4Karpiuk5n = 9Karpiuk took 5 of 9
S4Michalik5Karpiuk4n = 9Michalik took 5 of 9
S5Michalik1Karpiuk5n = 6Karpiuk took 5 of 6
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away556%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMichalikKarpiukM − KBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set81+7of 9Avg pointsper match40.845.6−4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime536 / 1148 vs 116 / 25946.7%44.8%536 / 1148 vs 116 / 259Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.73/Karpiuk 1.92
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 31 · 21:20J. Michalik—11911762M. Karpiuk—811711113
WAug 9 · 01:00J. Michalik—11611113M. Karpiuk—811791
LAug 8 · 18:55J. Michalik—111031132M. Karpiuk—712119113
LJul 20 · 23:20J. Michalik—111041162M. Karpiuk—812119113
WJul 15 · 22:10J. Michalik—11118113M. Karpiuk—871171
LJul 15 · 19:40J. Michalik—51312772M. Karpiuk—11111011113
WJul 13 · 22:10J. Michalik—129134113M. Karpiuk—1011111192
LJul 6 · 21:00J. Michalik—11331172M. Karpiuk—911118113
LJun 30 · 02:10J. Michalik—119871M. Karpiuk—41111113
J. Michalik10
WSep 7 · 21:10J. Michalik1.8841212113A. Krezel1.8211101081LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10671151J. Slawomir1.6011117113LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582LAug 31 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.40111110113M. Karpiuk2.75951291LAug 31 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75511751
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