TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093683
Played Sep 8Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14126111178111113
Michal Machelski
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
104 points played in total.
Set by set
14126111178111113
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 6–4 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Karpiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Karpiuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1257 vs Machelski 1294
Machelski
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 20% vs Machelski 0%
Karpiuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 40% vs Machelski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -3 · Machelski -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpiuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 1.80 / Machelski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Karpiuk)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13093683
Karpiuk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite48% won 56 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 38 of 55
Machelski1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpiuk6wins
AwayMachelski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayMachelski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk7Machelski3n = 10Karpiuk took 7 of 10
S2Karpiuk3Machelski7n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S3Karpiuk7Machelski3n = 10Karpiuk took 7 of 10
S4Karpiuk3Machelski4n = 7Machelski took 4 of 7
S5Karpiuk3Machelski2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpiukMachelskiK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.639.4+0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 261 vs 420 / 113944.4%36.9%116 / 261 vs 420 / 1139Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.935.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukKarpiuk 1.80/Machelski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 02:35M. Karpiuk—481261M. Machelski—111110113
LAug 30 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—38140M. Machelski—1111163
WAug 24 · 02:10M. Karpiuk—115911113M. Machelski—41111752
LAug 23 · 20:05M. Karpiuk—141011692M. Machelski—1212911113
WAug 16 · 22:55M. Karpiuk—81111113M. Machelski—114951
LAug 16 · 16:55M. Karpiuk—11571162M. Machelski—811119113
WAug 13 · 04:15M. Karpiuk—1111113M. Machelski—7960
WAug 12 · 22:40M. Karpiuk—129113113M. Machelski—101191172
WAug 10 · 24:10M. Karpiuk—129117113M. Machelski—101141182
WAug 9 · 20:30M. Karpiuk—1112113M. Machelski—81090
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10671151J. Slawomir1.6011117113LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113WSep 1 · 24:50M. Karpiuk1.919111111113J. Skorupa1.8011813582
M. Machelski10
LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750LSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182
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