TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093688
Played Sep 8Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117115––––
Michal Machelski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
117117115––––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 54–23 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 23 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-23 in 77
Michalik
Correct
gap of 31 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1446 vs Machelski 1303
Michalik
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Machelski 20%
Michalik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Machelski 40%
Michalik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +2 · Machelski -4
Machelski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.60 / Machelski 2.10
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Michalik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093688
Michalik1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 151 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it77% 109 of 142
Machelski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik6wins
AwayMachelski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik83.3%5 of 6
AwayMachelski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik6Machelski4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S2Michalik4Machelski6n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S3Michalik7Machelski3n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S4Michalik4Machelski3n = 7Michalik took 4 of 7
S5Michalik1Machelski2n = 3Machelski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikMachelskiMichalik − MachelskiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.0+0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime537 / 1149 vs 420 / 113846.7%36.9%537 / 1149 vs 420 / 1138Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.60/Machelski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 27 · 05:10J. Michalik—7990M. Machelski—1111113
LJul 24 · 01:55J. Michalik—111113182M. Machelski—9131111113
WJul 23 · 19:55J. Michalik—81313113M. Machelski—11111171
WJul 22 · 02:20J. Michalik—111011113M. Machelski—412981
WJul 20 · 07:35J. Michalik—1111113M. Machelski—5770
LJul 10 · 01:30J. Michalik—51312572M. Machelski—11111011113
WJul 9 · 19:30J. Michalik—11711113M. Machelski—511891
WJul 6 · 03:10J. Michalik—11611113M. Machelski—511391
WJul 3 · 01:30J. Michalik—111179113M. Machelski—58111172
LJul 2 · 19:30J. Michalik—4960M. Machelski—1111113
J. Michalik10
WSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181WSep 7 · 21:10J. Michalik1.8841212113A. Krezel1.8211101081LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192
M. Machelski10
WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133
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