TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088266
Played Sep 7Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41110121412117117
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 55.4%
99 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 8–6 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lewczuk beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:34What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1533 vs Skorupa 1341
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Skorupa 20%
Lewczuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Skorupa 20%
Lewczuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -2 · Skorupa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.53 / Skorupa 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lewczuk)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13088266
Lewczuk1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite70% won 166 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it84% 124 of 148
Skorupa2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk7wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk80%4 of 5
AwaySkorupa40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Lewczuk7Skorupa3n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S3Lewczuk10Skorupa0n = 10Lewczuk took 10 of 10
S4Lewczuk3Skorupa4n = 7Skorupa took 4 of 7
S5Lewczuk2Skorupa3n = 5Skorupa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukSkorupaL − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.038.8+4.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 964 vs 299 / 62251.7%48.1%498 / 964 vs 299 / 622Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.53/Skorupa 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.4%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—4101411113J. Skorupa—111212772
WSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—101111113J. Skorupa—128591
LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—114141222J. Skorupa—5111214113
WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—1111113J. Skorupa—5860
WAug 31 · 22:30M. Lewczuk—81111113J. Skorupa—119831
WAug 31 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—1271114113J. Skorupa—101181672
LJun 18 · 23:55M. Lewczuk—81111992J. Skorupa—119911113
LJun 18 · 17:55M. Lewczuk—91111692J. Skorupa—114911113
WJun 18 · 03:55M. Lewczuk—1114113J. Skorupa—71260
WJun 17 · 21:55M. Lewczuk—1113113J. Skorupa—81190
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113LSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102LSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892LSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591LSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192
J. Skorupa10
WSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381LSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591WSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.