TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088270
Played Sep 7Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711117811119115
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 91 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 12–14 Jakub Skorupa Jacek Zelezik has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Skorupa beat Zelezik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:37What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-14 in 26
Skorupa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1431 vs Skorupa 1329
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 40% vs Skorupa 20%
Zelezik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 50% vs Skorupa 30%
Zelezik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik -1 · Skorupa -3
Skorupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.61 / Skorupa 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Zelezik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13088270
Zelezik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 179 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it82% 139 of 169
Skorupa2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik6wins
AwaySkorupa4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik66.7%4 of 6
AwaySkorupa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik6Skorupa4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Zelezik5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelezik5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S5Zelezik3Skorupa2n = 5Zelezik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikSkorupaZ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.842.5+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 672 vs 298 / 61953.9%48.1%362 / 672 vs 298 / 619Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.61/Skorupa 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik—91011101J. Skorupa—11129123
WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik—11117133J. Skorupa—9911111
WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik—461111113J. Skorupa—11116442
LSep 4 · 01:55J. Zelezik—5111221J. Skorupa—11814113
WSep 3 · 19:55J. Zelezik—111410113J. Skorupa—7121261
WAug 24 · 22:00J. Zelezik—121365133J. Skorupa—10111111112
WAug 19 · 04:40J. Zelezik—119146113J. Skorupa—811121152
WAug 18 · 22:40J. Zelezik—91111113J. Skorupa—115741
LAug 18 · 01:10J. Zelezik—112117102J. Skorupa—811811123
LJul 8 · 03:55J. Zelezik—11861182J. Skorupa—811115113
J. Zelezik10
LSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892WSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123WSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381LSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591WSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113
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