TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088328
Played Sep 7Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511115311411––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 61 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 58.6%
61 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 14–23 Henryk Tkaczyk Jacek Zelezik has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:54What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-23 in 37
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1434 vs Tkaczyk 1619
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 60% vs Tkaczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 60% vs Tkaczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik -1 · Tkaczyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 2.25 / Tkaczyk 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13088328
Zelezik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 92 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 68
Tkaczyk1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik50%2 of 4
AwayTkaczyk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Zelezik3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Zelezik3Tkaczyk4n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikTkaczykZ − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.439.8−6.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 669 vs 990 / 148754%66.6%361 / 669 vs 990 / 1487Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykZelezik 2.25/Tkaczyk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 22:35J. Zelezik—11621352H. Tkaczyk—7111111113
LAug 26 · 15:00J. Zelezik—711147102H. Tkaczyk—1181211123
LAug 17 · 22:50J. Zelezik—5630H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LAug 17 · 15:10J. Zelezik—11101291H. Tkaczyk—91214113
WAug 3 · 22:50J. Zelezik—11115113H. Tkaczyk—361151
WAug 3 · 15:10J. Zelezik—121211113H. Tkaczyk—1014551
LJul 26 · 21:20J. Zelezik—6640H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJul 26 · 15:25J. Zelezik—471191H. Tkaczyk—11119113
LJul 22 · 23:30J. Zelezik—6480H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJul 22 · 19:10J. Zelezik—10129121H. Tkaczyk—121011143
J. Zelezik10
LSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892WSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123WSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113LSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Zelezik
H. Tkaczyk1 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 7 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk1.36M. Lewczuk3.00—Sep 7 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.44M. Krutak2.63—Sep 7 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk1.57J. Zelezik2.25—Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——Sep 8 · 21:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——
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