TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088273
Played Sep 7Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191161412––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHenryk Tkaczyk above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 63 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 59.9%
63 points played in total.
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 30–14 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 14 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-14 in 44
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 16 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1626 vs Skorupa 1343
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 283 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 60% vs Skorupa 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 60% vs Skorupa 40%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +1 · Skorupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.44 / Skorupa 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13088273
Tkaczyk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Skorupa2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk6wins
AwaySkorupa4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%6 of 6
AwaySkorupa100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk6Skorupa4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Tkaczyk7Skorupa3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Tkaczyk5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Tkaczyk4Skorupa3n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5Tkaczyk2Skorupa2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykSkorupaT − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.837.1+3.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime991 / 1488 vs 298 / 61766.6%48.3%991 / 1488 vs 298 / 617Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.44/Skorupa 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk—812813102J. Skorupa—11101111123
WAug 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—1112113J. Skorupa—81060
LAug 20 · 23:45H. Tkaczyk—9128121J. Skorupa—111011143
WAug 20 · 15:50H. Tkaczyk—1161112113J. Skorupa—71181442
WAug 17 · 21:10H. Tkaczyk—118311113J. Skorupa—71111472
WAug 4 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk—111011113J. Skorupa—712761
LAug 4 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk—311881J. Skorupa—11711113
WJul 19 · 02:45H. Tkaczyk—1211113J. Skorupa—10690
LJul 18 · 18:25H. Tkaczyk—812611102J. Skorupa—1110116123
WJul 5 · 02:45H. Tkaczyk—1111113J. Skorupa—4560
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113WSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591WSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762
Upcoming Matches
H. Tkaczyk1 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk1.36M. Lewczuk3.00—Sep 7 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.50M. Krutak2.50—Sep 7 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk1.57J. Zelezik2.25—Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——Sep 8 · 21:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——Sep 8 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk—J. Michalik——
J. Skorupa
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