TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088267
Played Sep 7Finished
Artur Kubiak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121214511––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Kubiak above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 64 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Artur Kubiak 13–8 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kubiak beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:35What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kubiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Kubiak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1341 vs Skorupa 1340
Kubiak
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 20% vs Skorupa 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 20% vs Skorupa 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak -4 · Skorupa -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kubiak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 1.73 / Skorupa 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kubiak)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13088267
Kubiak1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 168 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it94% 79 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it83% 115 of 138
Skorupa2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubiak5wins
AwaySkorupa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubiakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkorupa50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubiak2Skorupa8n = 10Skorupa took 8 of 10
S2Kubiak7Skorupa3n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S3Kubiak3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S4Kubiak5Skorupa3n = 8Kubiak took 5 of 8
S5Kubiak3Skorupa2n = 5Kubiak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubiakSkorupaK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.742.2−3.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime512 / 926 vs 299 / 62155.3%48.2%512 / 926 vs 299 / 621Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakKubiak 1.73/Skorupa 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak—101250J. Skorupa—1214113
WSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak—11116113J. Skorupa—691181
LAug 30 · 22:35A. Kubiak—87111192J. Skorupa—111189113
WAug 30 · 15:00A. Kubiak—711911113J. Skorupa—11611972
LAug 29 · 23:10A. Kubiak—5540J. Skorupa—1111113
WAug 29 · 17:10A. Kubiak—5121110123J. Skorupa—1110512102
LAug 25 · 02:20A. Kubiak—11115692J. Skorupa—691111113
LJul 18 · 23:10A. Kubiak—411851J. Skorupa—11911113
WJul 18 · 17:10A. Kubiak—611711113J. Skorupa—11911692
WJun 22 · 23:20A. Kubiak—101114113J. Skorupa—1271291
A. Kubiak10
LSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151LSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113LSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113WSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:35A. Kubiak3.4041111592J. Oracz1.28116611113LSep 5 · 24:25C. Pawlik1.441111113A. Kubiak2.605660LSep 4 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.461111133A. Kubiak2.4748110
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772LSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381LSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591WSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681
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