TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088268
Played Sep 7Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161184117111210
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 91 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 57.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 12–11 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Lewczuk beat Zelezik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:35What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1424 vs Lewczuk 1534
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 40% vs Lewczuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 60% vs Lewczuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +1 · Lewczuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.73 / Lewczuk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zelezik)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13088268
Zelezik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 179 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it82% 139 of 169
Lewczuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 60 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik7wins
AwayLewczuk3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik75%3 of 4
AwayLewczuk33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik4Lewczuk6n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik7Lewczuk3n = 10Zelezik took 7 of 10
S3Zelezik6Lewczuk4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S4Zelezik6Lewczuk2n = 8Zelezik took 6 of 8
S5Zelezik2Lewczuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikLewczukZ − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.439.1+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 673 vs 497 / 96253.9%51.7%363 / 673 vs 497 / 962Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.73/Lewczuk 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 19:40J. Zelezik—11119892M. Lewczuk—591111113
WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik—111110113M. Lewczuk—951281
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Zelezik—97131132M. Lewczuk—1111119113
LSep 2 · 21:45J. Zelezik—4560M. Lewczuk—1111113
WSep 2 · 17:45J. Zelezik—861113173M. Lewczuk—1111711152
WAug 20 · 23:55J. Zelezik—1111812113M. Lewczuk—17111472
WAug 20 · 17:55J. Zelezik—71111113M. Lewczuk—114751
WAug 20 · 01:45J. Zelezik—61111123M. Lewczuk—1199101
WAug 19 · 16:15J. Zelezik—41115113M. Lewczuk—1171381
WJun 27 · 02:20J. Zelezik—1114113M. Lewczuk—51270
J. Zelezik10
WSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892WSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123WSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772LSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892LSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591LSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281
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