TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088263
Played Sep 8Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611811119911––
Artur Kubiak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 17–32 Artur Kubiak Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 17 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Kubiak beat Lewczuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-32 in 49
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 15 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1506 vs Kubiak 1333
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Kubiak 20%
Lewczuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Kubiak 30%
Lewczuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -1 · Kubiak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lewczuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.80 / Kubiak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lewczuk)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13088263
Lewczuk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite70% won 166 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it84% 124 of 148
Kubiak1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 72 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk1wins
AwayKubiak9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKubiak100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk2Kubiak8n = 10Kubiak took 8 of 10
S2Lewczuk3Kubiak7n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S3Lewczuk4Kubiak6n = 10Kubiak took 6 of 10
S4Lewczuk3Kubiak2n = 5Lewczuk took 3 of 5
S5Lewczuk0Kubiak4n = 4Kubiak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukKubiakL − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.340.8−9.5per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 965 vs 513 / 92851.6%55.3%498 / 965 vs 513 / 928Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.80/Kubiak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—411111132A. Kubiak—111389113
LAug 3 · 22:35M. Lewczuk—116811112A. Kubiak—911115133
LAug 3 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—81111842A. Kubiak—119811113
LJun 25 · 02:10M. Lewczuk—6240A. Kubiak—1111113
WJun 24 · 20:05M. Lewczuk—1411123A. Kubiak—128100
LJun 1 · 23:35M. Lewczuk—5117131A. Kubiak—11811153
LJun 1 · 17:35M. Lewczuk—8880A. Kubiak—1111113
LMar 28 · 02:10M. Lewczuk—65111152A. Kubiak—111189113
LMar 27 · 20:10M. Lewczuk—4980A. Kubiak—1111113
LMar 21 · 23:50M. Lewczuk—6460A. Kubiak—1111113
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113WSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772LSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102LSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892LSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591LSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360
A. Kubiak10
WSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151LSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113LSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113WSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761
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