TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088325
Played Sep 8Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131162111311911
Artur Kubiak
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 70.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 21–5 Artur Kubiak Artur Kubiak has won 5 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zelezik beat Kubiak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-5 in 26
Zelezik
Wrong
gap of 16 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1427 vs Kubiak 1318
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 60% vs Kubiak 0%
Zelezik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 60% vs Kubiak 20%
Zelezik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik -1 · Kubiak -5
Kubiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (0%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.36 / Kubiak 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13088325
Zelezik1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 179 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it82% 139 of 169
Kubiak3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 72 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik9wins
AwayKubiak1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik88.9%8 of 9
AwayKubiakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik9Kubiak1n = 10Zelezik took 9 of 10
S2Zelezik7Kubiak3n = 10Zelezik took 7 of 10
S3Zelezik8Kubiak2n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S4Zelezik3Kubiak2n = 5Zelezik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikKubiakZ − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.727.3+11.4per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 675 vs 512 / 92753.9%55.2%364 / 675 vs 512 / 927Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.36/Kubiak 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik—1113113A. Kubiak—31190
WAug 24 · 22:50J. Zelezik—1111113A. Kubiak—8680
WAug 24 · 15:10J. Zelezik—1111113A. Kubiak—5580
WAug 10 · 22:50J. Zelezik—1111143A. Kubiak—45120
LAug 10 · 15:10J. Zelezik—1111791A. Kubiak—41311113
WJul 20 · 16:15J. Zelezik—61111113A. Kubiak—116381
WJun 23 · 01:30J. Zelezik—111411113A. Kubiak—516471
WJun 19 · 21:10J. Zelezik—12611113A. Kubiak—1011221
WJun 19 · 16:50J. Zelezik—1211910113A. Kubiak—109111252
WJun 7 · 02:45J. Zelezik—1111113A. Kubiak—4950
J. Zelezik10
WSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771LSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113WSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102WSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892WSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123WSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111
A. Kubiak10
WSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113LSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151LSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113LSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113WSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.