TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088324
Played Sep 8Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511117117117––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 70 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 58.6%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 14–23 Henryk Tkaczyk Jacek Zelezik has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Zelezik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-23 in 37
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1420 vs Tkaczyk 1601
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 40% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 50% vs Tkaczyk 70%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik -2 · Tkaczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 2.50 / Tkaczyk 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13088324
Zelezik2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 92 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back27% 31 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 68
Tkaczyk1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik50%2 of 4
AwayTkaczyk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Zelezik3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Zelezik3Tkaczyk4n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikTkaczykZ − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.439.8−6.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 677 vs 996 / 149553.9%66.6%365 / 677 vs 996 / 1495Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykZelezik 2.50/Tkaczyk 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 22:35J. Zelezik—11621352H. Tkaczyk—7111111113
LAug 26 · 15:00J. Zelezik—711147102H. Tkaczyk—1181211123
LAug 17 · 22:50J. Zelezik—5630H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LAug 17 · 15:10J. Zelezik—11101291H. Tkaczyk—91214113
WAug 3 · 22:50J. Zelezik—11115113H. Tkaczyk—361151
WAug 3 · 15:10J. Zelezik—121211113H. Tkaczyk—1014551
LJul 26 · 21:20J. Zelezik—6640H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJul 26 · 15:25J. Zelezik—471191H. Tkaczyk—11119113
LJul 22 · 23:30J. Zelezik—6480H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJul 22 · 19:10J. Zelezik—10129121H. Tkaczyk—121011143
J. Zelezik10
LSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113WSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102WSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892WSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123WSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44139118143J. Skorupa2.631111811122WSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580WSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120WSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113
Upcoming Matches
J. Zelezik
Nothing scheduled
H. Tkaczyk
Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——Sep 8 · 21:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——Sep 8 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk—J. Michalik——Sep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk—M. Machelski——Sep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——Sep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——
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