TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092331
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Krutak
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115118––––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Krutak above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 50 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 68.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Michal Krutak 9–14 Henryk Tkaczyk Michal Krutak has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:32What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutak 1461 vs Tkaczyk 1629
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutak 80% vs Tkaczyk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutak 40% vs Tkaczyk 90%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutak +4 · Tkaczyk +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutak 2.50 / Tkaczyk 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13092331
Krutak2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 37 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Tkaczyk1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrutak2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrutakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkaczyk87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutak2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Krutak6Tkaczyk4n = 10Krutak took 6 of 10
S3Krutak2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Krutak4Tkaczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Krutak2Tkaczyk4n = 6Tkaczyk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrutakTkaczykK − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.044.1−5.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutakTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 334 vs 994 / 149159.6%66.7%199 / 334 vs 994 / 1491Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykKrutak 2.50/Tkaczyk 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krutak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak—1411116113H. Tkaczyk—127131192
LAug 11 · 01:30M. Krutak—8360H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LAug 10 · 20:05M. Krutak—711921H. Tkaczyk—11611113
LJul 21 · 02:10M. Krutak—811881H. Tkaczyk—11411113
LJul 20 · 18:10M. Krutak—911811102H. Tkaczyk—116115123
LJul 2 · 21:20M. Krutak—7850H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJul 2 · 15:25M. Krutak—11117872H. Tkaczyk—971111113
LJun 29 · 22:35M. Krutak—213111152H. Tkaczyk—111577113
WJun 29 · 15:00M. Krutak—1291113113H. Tkaczyk—141151182
LJun 21 · 02:00M. Krutak—51271292H. Tkaczyk—11101110113
M. Krutak10
WSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151WSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381WSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113WSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123LSep 5 · 02:00M. Krutak2.702880C. Pawlik1.421111113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Krutak2.70471191A. Zmijewski1.3911117113LSep 4 · 23:35M. Krutak3.0010570J. Oracz1.331211113LSep 4 · 22:25D. Pyrek1.95811611123M. Krutak1.70117115102
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120WSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Krutak
H. Tkaczyk
Sep 7 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk1.50J. Zelezik2.50—Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——Sep 8 · 21:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——Sep 8 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk—J. Michalik——Sep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk—M. Machelski——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.