TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092353
Played Sep 7Finished
Artur Kubiak
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611112511811––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Kubiak above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 65 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 64.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Artur Kubiak 34–37 Henryk Tkaczyk Artur Kubiak has won 34 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Kubiak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:31What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-37 in 71
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1327 vs Tkaczyk 1588
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 0% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 20% vs Tkaczyk 70%
Tkaczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak -5 · Tkaczyk -1
Kubiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 2.63 / Tkaczyk 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13092353
Kubiak2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 72 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back17% 22 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 77
Tkaczyk1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubiak5wins
AwayTkaczyk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubiak80%4 of 5
AwayTkaczyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubiak5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Kubiak4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Kubiak4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Kubiak5Tkaczyk3n = 8Kubiak took 5 of 8
S5Kubiak2Tkaczyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubiakTkaczykK − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.341.2−1.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime512 / 926 vs 994 / 149255.3%66.6%512 / 926 vs 994 / 1492Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykKubiak 2.63/Tkaczyk 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 24:25A. Kubiak—11912123H. Tkaczyk—61110101
LAug 15 · 20:45A. Kubiak—410111152H. Tkaczyk—111278113
WJul 21 · 24:10A. Kubiak—1141011113H. Tkaczyk—91112792
WJul 20 · 20:30A. Kubiak—11125113H. Tkaczyk—8101111
LJul 19 · 24:00A. Kubiak—51090H. Tkaczyk—1112113
LJul 18 · 16:00A. Kubiak—11141012112H. Tkaczyk—7121214133
LJul 12 · 22:35A. Kubiak—31040H. Tkaczyk—1112113
WJul 12 · 15:00A. Kubiak—11116113H. Tkaczyk—691141
LJun 30 · 01:30A. Kubiak—471291H. Tkaczyk—111110113
WJun 29 · 16:15A. Kubiak—1011128113H. Tkaczyk—128101182
A. Kubiak10
WSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151LSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113LSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113WSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 5 · 02:45D. Pyrek1.6051111113A. Kubiak2.10117761LSep 5 · 01:35A. Kubiak3.4041111592J. Oracz1.28116611113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44139118143J. Skorupa2.631111811122LSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580WSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120WSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471
Upcoming Matches
A. Kubiak
Nothing scheduled
H. Tkaczyk
Sep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk1.50J. Zelezik2.50—Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——Sep 8 · 21:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——Sep 8 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk—J. Michalik——Sep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk—M. Machelski——Sep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.