TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13068117
Played Sep 3Finished
Witold Stechly
Home
3.95
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311118611211––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched — 64.2% is still 64.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
64.2%
64.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
63 points played in total.
Set by set
311118611211––
H2H Witold Stechly 1–6 Jakub Skorupa Witold Stechly has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (77%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Skorupa
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stechly 1111 vs Skorupa 1313
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 202 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stechly 40% vs Skorupa 20%
Stechly
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stechly 20% vs Skorupa 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stechly -3 · Skorupa -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStechly 3.95 / Skorupa 1.20
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Skorupa)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13068117
Stechly3.95
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 46 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back11% 18 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 106
Skorupa1.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 142 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it75% 92 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStechly1wins
AwaySkorupa6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSkorupa leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStechly0%0 of 4
AwaySkorupa66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stechly4Skorupa3n = 7Stechly took 4 of 7
S2Stechly2Skorupa5n = 7Skorupa took 5 of 7
S3Stechly3Skorupa4n = 7Skorupa took 4 of 7
S4Stechly1Skorupa5n = 6Skorupa took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricStechlySkorupaStechly − SkorupaBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match32.941.6−8.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStechlySkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 520 vs 286 / 59116.2%48.4%84 / 520 vs 286 / 591Avg sets wonper match1.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaStechly 3.95/Skorupa 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 3 · 03:10W. Stechly—11611872J. Skorupa—711911113
LJul 2 · 01:55W. Stechly—1157101J. Skorupa—81111123
LJun 17 · 23:30W. Stechly—126751J. Skorupa—101111113
WMay 25 · 08:45W. Stechly—31111113J. Skorupa—118771
LMay 11 · 08:45W. Stechly—66110J. Skorupa—1111133
LMay 1 · 24:20W. Stechly—11211772J. Skorupa—611811113
LApr 30 · 20:20W. Stechly—611371J. Skorupa—11911113
W. Stechly10
LSep 7 · 06:45J. Slawomir1.1015811113W. Stechly5.551311491LSep 7 · 06:00A. Zmijewski1.091111117123W. Stechly5.90136711102WSep 7 · 05:10W. Stechly5.20117119113M. Wolny1.1281151172LSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 3 · 04:20W. Stechly9.255670M. Warzecha1.021111113LSep 3 · 03:05W. Stechly3.40941161K. Gudzik1.2511116113LSep 3 · 24:45Z. Nocun1.12117912123W. Stechly4.958111110102LSep 2 · 23:55W. Stechly2.19981481A. Staniczek1.61111112113LAug 31 · 09:10W. Stechly2.05118781D. Maszczynski1.7071111113WAug 31 · 07:50W. Stechly4.3011411113J. Slawomir1.16611631
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171LSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860
Upcoming Matches
W. Stechly
J. Skorupa6 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——
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